When? All are asking "When will the Initial Equity Contribution Date take place?" We are faced with this ominous wording in the filing:"CleanBioenergy may terminate the ECCA Agreement if the Initial Equity Contribution Date has not occurred by January 31, 2009. GreenShift believes that the Initial Equity Contribution Date will occur in January 2009."
The question the SkunK believes we should be asking is this: When will we find out the Initial Equity Contribution Date took place?
If we look at previous financing agreements we have always had a lag between the event and the announcement.
EXAMPLE ONE
The $10M Yagi line of credit was inked on 11 January 2008. It was in a filing dated the 25th and then the 31st of January 2008.
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1269127/000126912708000021/ex10a108.txt
EXAMPLE TWO
In the refinance of a portion of the debt for Culinary Oil Plant we saw it in a PR dated 18 December. The PR said it took place earlier in the month.
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=BW&date=20081218&id=9461437
EXAMPLE THREE
In the filing considering this new GE CBE financing the signing was on Dec 11th and the filing on the 16th of December.
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1269127/000126912708000180/gers8k121608.txt
What is your POINT SkunK?
In a micro-cap stock things do not happen instantaneously. In all three cases above, there was a significant lag between doing the deal and reporting the deal. In each of the good news cases above it was in the company's interest to get the news out as soon as possible. It just takes time to make arrangements that cannot be made until the deal is actually done.
Yeah so?
Well if the deal is done the middle or end of this coming week, or even done on Saturday 31 January, we should not expect to hear about it until the following week. The 5th or 6th of Feb is certainly not out of the question. (On the other hand - if it was done last week we might hear about it this week.)
Note: 25 January 2008 was a Friday. 16 December 2008 was a Tuesday. 18 December was a Thursday. All I can gleam from that is it will probably not be a Monday? In any case you want a guess right? A silly wild haired guess so you can say the SkunK was wrong again - right? OK, of course I cannot help myself. I will pick 4 February as the day we are told about the closing of the deal and that the cash is freed up. We will then be FULL SPEED AHEAD!
Note/Note: Actually I feel pretty confident we will get the news in the next ten trading days - so I have a ten percent chance of being right! Take out the Mondays, add in the fact we apparently have a tendency to push deadlines, throw in a day either side to give me an "almost" and I think I have about a 50-50 chance of being right.
Prognostication Competition?
Lightbeam on i-hub took up the challange and here is his wag:
". . . this week as soon as they can. By wednesday night. There was some heavy buying this last week and I think they will get it done as soon as possible. Last week would of been bad timing with the new pres. IMO"
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=35072903
******
On the yahoo board we see a countdown that seems to be based on trading days. If that is the case it could be counting down to Groundhog day? the 2nd of Feb? The countdown on the Raging Bull last spring did not seem to amount to much?? The twist this time is some kind of code? with a letter a day? With many better things to do I guess it is something else to watch. . .
As always,only time will tell,
SkunK
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