It is too early to holler "breakout"! But the SkunK thinks we just may have had a successful test of our October lows. That being the case I think that we may now be pulling out of a double bottom. I know some others have already called this, and emailed me, but I needed a day like today to jump on board. Volume coming off the double bottom should be strong - and today certainly was. What makes this significant is what the final line of the double bottom "W" means.
For youzz that want the full version here it is at the link below. Look at a six-eight month GERS chart and see how you think things line up for you on a double bottom reversal:
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:double_bottom_revers
BIG CHART http://docs.google.com/Doc?id=dgzzx2hv_38ffvmzxdd
Here is the SkunK-i-cized Short Version:
The double bottom is a major reversal pattern that forms after an extended downtrend. As its name implies, the pattern is made up of two consecutive troughs that are roughly equal, with a moderate peak in-between.1. Prior Trend: Was it down - Yep
2. First Trough: Did it set new low - Yes sir
3. Peak: Goes up a bit and stops - sure did
4. Second Trough: 1-3 months test of low - ubetcha
5. Advance from Trough: Clear high volume with buying pressure - so far
6. Resistance Break: go higher than #3 above.
7. Resistance Turned Support: Broken resistance becomes potential support
8. Price Target:The distance from the resistance breakout to trough lows can be added on top of the resistance break to estimate a target.
SkunK Conclusion: If we are in this double bottom reversal formation, then I suspect we are 4 days into step #5. The resistance break referred to in step #6 would be at 8 cents. Once it goes above 8 it may move up to close to a dime (SkunK's guess) and then could drop back to find support at the 8 cent level. From there it could move up to a price target of #3 (8 cents) and the difference between 8 cents and the low (.006). So the sum of .08+ .074=15.4 cents for a target price - to complete this technical formation. . .
************
Big days
10/31/08 3,782,788 00.00%
01/21/09 6,189,153 28.24%
Oct 31 is the closest big day to what we saw today. About half the volume and flat. We HAVE NOT SEEN ANYTHING LIKE THIS since reorganization over a year ago. For you old timers this is over 300M shares traded in a single day pre-r/s. The ground is moving.
************
The SkunK has given his rather untrusting opinion of technical analysis before. I still believe that technicals do not tell us if the stock is going up or down over the long haul. Fundamentals do. This is why my long term opinion of where we are going has not been swayed by short term lower prices. On the other hand I find technicals fascinating and when I find when they do not work I can normally find I applied something wrong. Like when I first mentioned a double bottom on 31 October. I now can see I was looking at the start of the formation and it was way too early. This taking from both camps works for me. I hope everyone has found what works for them.
As I have said before, I think we are perched for an up move. The timing is the financing deal, one of the keys that needed to be unlocked. If this is a double bottom reversal then it should move up significantly. There are no guaranteeeees - certainly not from me. All I can tell you is what I think. I am setting fat and happy with plenty of shares. I wish I could tell you all my shares were all bought under 2 cents but they certainly are not. But I never have been good enough to just buy the bottom. I am content and confident with a very reasonable average PPS. My public trading post I started last March is @.0353pps Others think it will go down from here. That's fine since every market needs both buyers and sellers. Guess we will see what happens over the next month or so.
Good Hunting,
SkunK
*********
Disclaimer
**Note: I am a shareholder - I do not work for, nor do I receive any direct or indirect payment from GERS or anyone associated with them. (But it would be Kapitalist Kool if I did) I will not intentionally mislead - but I can be wrong (ask Mrs. SkunK for specific frequencies) - so do your own due diligence - and take responsibility for your own financial decisions – (and your own life in general) good or bad. I do not give financial advice - I let you look at my dd as I try to make sense of it all and make MY decisions. I have been rightfully accused of being a rather cheery, positive individual who laughs at every opportunity. These tendencies may cause me to overlook deficiencies in this stock that are painfully obvious to others. Celebrate today - and some good garage logic luck to ya. SkunK (Blogger formerly know as Skunk)
"Remember the only reason the herd is on the move is because they finally figured out the last place they rushed off to was wrong!" SkunK '09
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment