Saturday, July 28, 2012

Misc Reading

Statement

Order

SkunK

23 comments:

nobody123789 said...

The surprising second quarter results from GPRE are going to place more pressure on the GERS filing. Crude extrapolations imply that we should see in excess of $8 million in revenue. We will likely not see any where near that amount and the questions about the disconnect between licensee revenues and GERS reported revenue will increase in my opinion. Since GERS has stated that their legal fees for the quarter will be reduced from $600,000 to $150,000 the need for cash to pay bills should have lessened and yet they continue to heavily dilute; another indication that revenues are no where near what they "should" be.

Anonymous said...

Look, I know these guys. They have a stable operating ethical behavioral company. There may be a stretch for dollars from time to time. Financials may not meet expectations because those expectations are based upon false knowledge. I know for a fact these guys work 24/7 to the benefit of the stock-holdeers.

These guys, Kevin, Ed, Greg, David and David, Whit, Rich, Dave, Steven, Jackie, Chris, Mary, John, Chris, etc. are working diligently for the shareholder.

I suggest due to the litigation, the word is mum as far as on-going events are concerned. However, behind the scenes, every one of the employees of this company are working day/night/weekends to make this company work. They are all whole-heartedly dedicated, which is what I look for as an investor.

They are protecting the patents in suit, but do not hang their hat on that as the long-term success of this company. As evidence, other technologies pursued. A venture capitalist once told me if more than 10% of his investments made money, he was doing something wrong. It was those 10% high risk that brought him multiples over in profits over the long term.

GLTA

jimmowrey said...

Nobody, the dilution is not necessarily connected to revenues. GERS has made it very clear that YAGI can convert any amount of debt to shares at will. That would mean even if payments of any kind are being made to YAGI, YAGI can still convert shares and dump them in the market. That is why getting conventional financing is so important to GERS.

nobody123789 said...

Why would YAGI prefer shares to cash? There is a cost to shares that cash does not involve. Are they getting shares at a discount and then dumping them at market value? I remember such a discussion months or years ago, but I thought that part was restructured with the new YAGI deal of about 18 months ago. Does any one know the facts on this issue? If YAGI is no longer getting a discount then it doesn't make sense to take shares instead of cash unless there is not enough cash forth coming.

nobody123789 said...

Anony 11:06 your assessment of the principals is right on. Your speculation about the impact of the litigation and their attorneys' control of external communications is fact as told directly to me and my wife. This is why, for so many reasons, successful closure of the litigation is paramount. Primacy of technology, elimination of YAGI, and most importantly to the common shareholder, advancement of the PPS is dependent on this outcome; and so much more that I will not elaborate here. In my opinion, nothing else matters unless lightening strikes and they can obtain new financing without this closure -- unlikely.

Anonymous said...

Does any one know the facts on this issue?

Quick one of Nobody's friends scour the filings and find this information!!!!

What? no friends?

OK, quick one of the people Nobody has not insulted in the last six months!!!

Ahhhhhh Nobody?

Looks like your on your own buddy!

jimmowrey said...

Nobody, gers has an agreement to make 1.6 million in cash payments this year. YAGI will take shares for anything above that. This is not new news.

jimmowrey said...

Nobody, gers has an agreement to make 1.6 million in cash payments this year. YAGI will take shares for anything above that. This is not new news.

nobody123789 said...

Based on the 6% interest and Note 9 of the last filing the YAGI debt stood at $21,558,711 or $1.3 million per year in interest. The $1.6 million pledged to cover that amount would be sufficient if GERS had the cash. I believe that my position that GERS does not have enough revenue, at this time, to pay that (and other bills) is correct and why we still are being diluted to do so.

nobody123789 said...

Anony 12:52 you cannot insult an idiot, they are too dumb to take exception.

Anonymous said...

From what I know, most of those in the ethanol industry only deal with these guys once or not at all. Good luck all in this mess.

jimmowrey said...

I cannot go back and look now, but I rember the total interest to YAGI, and thier assignees equalled 1.8 million. That leaves a deficit of $200,000. That is covered by converting debt to shares. Nothing new. We cannot tell yet if GERS started making those payments. Perhaps we will see it in the next Q?

Anonymous said...

Hello? Anybody out there? GERS lawyers SHREDDED the last hope defendents had an you're arguing about the same OLD topics that been beat to death already?

nobody123789 said...

That fact and 25 cents and you still cannot make a phone call. The issue is not the winning but when the win will occur. The win here is the successful closure of the district court litigation, surviving the appeal, holding our breath that the Supreme Court will not take an interest (ICM will have a right to motion that Court to intervene after their appeal hopefully fails), and finally executing the remand for damages. Is GERS still going to be around then? Most people are betting no -- the PPS tells you all you need to know in that regard. Will the manacles of YAGI be exorcised before the monetary damages arrive? -- unlikely! So now go back into your euphoria corner and count the months until the PPS moves north for good. Hint -- you do not have enough fingers or toes.

Anonymous said...

Good thing you sold all your shares since you believe we are going to fail?

nobody123789 said...

Not true, I just now expect GERS to be diluted to the point that another R/S may be likely because of the time it will take to recover damages -- clearly not a possibility in your paradigm.

Anonymous said...

Possibility yes probability still to be determined.

Anonymous said...

It's possible they all settle right?
Nycdream

nobody123789 said...

GERS' principals have no such delusion -- they understand the manic ego of the principle instigator who they KNOW will drag this out absolutely as long as possible. Why? He believes that he is right and no court of law is going to tell him differently. Therefore, he KNOWS that the next level of judiciary will agree with him. Settlements can only occur among people willing to accept reality.

Anonymous said...

So you are saying they are going to win an appeal?
Nycdream

Anonymous said...

Dilution is meaningless with the treble damages stacking up like poker chips. Icm goes all in on a wherever the wind blows defensive strategy. They keep losing hands like this they'll lose the tournament.

nobody123789 said...

I have no basis for knowing that, I assume so based on what we know to date. I am told by legitimate experts in this field that the Appellate Court in DC reverses lower court decisions about 30% of the time of what we would call legal technicalities. Apparently, the Appellate Court has a different view of what is called "claim construction". So Assuming we prevail at the district court level we have, on average, about .7/.3 = greater than 2-fold odds of surviving the Appellate Court; then we wait for the petition to the Supreme Court, which hopefully will not see an issue in this litigation that they wish to wade into.

Anonymous said...

There's nothing to appeal Icm lost an exausted every excuse. The Supreme courts claim construction won't change.

 
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