2012 Projections!

Neil has worked up some projections for GreenShift below.  Thanks Neil for your hard work. This is difficult work projecting into the future with what information we have today.  As always, make your own investment decisions.  Neil's comments and Spreadsheet Here and below:
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Some comments to give some perspective to these revised projections:

1) With most of the known customers now on-line, the time to bring each facility on-line is less important to the outcome. hence I've taken a more"broad brush" approach and used actual "live" dates where known (which is for most of them). So you'll see nearly all of the facilities in my spreadsheet are at 100% production from January 1 - that's my assumption.

2) I've used a corn oil price of $3 from October 2011 as the basis for the projections. The results obviously vary depending on this critical number and replacing it at Oct 2011 will update both the revenue and cash flow figures.

3) Using $3 as the price shows a healthy revenue for 2012 of around $27 million and cash at year end of around $15 million. Any settlements in the mean time are a bonus and improve the picture accordingly. My numbers are conservative with regard to optimal production from each facility, which I've assumed to be multiples of 50mmgy. In some cases these have been increased significantly according to info on I-hub.

4) Which ever way you look at it GERS becomes cash accreted during 2012. At a price of $3 for corn oil, sufficient cash is generated to pay back 50% of debt by year end. This suddenly gives clear visibility to the GERS story and additional customers only makes it better. It is getting to the stage where, like I've done, analysts can model future income/asset growth and project positive market valuations. This visibility of earnings/cash flow can only be good for the share price.
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See Neil's Projections on a spreadsheet.

Notice he lists his 12 assumptions at the end.  Change them as you desire and develop your own projections.    I'm sure Neil would appreciate critiques, suggestions and encouragement in the comment section.  Thanks again Neil for all your work!
SkunK

PS This can be fun. Go back in time on the web using Way Back HERE. For example, here is ICM's old Corn Oil site Here on 29 May 2010 and here is the new one on 13 July 2011. It does not record when things change, it just records things when the crawlers come through the site. This site may help in the Valero discussion on I-Hub although the press site here appears to have been updated last on 28 May 2010.