Friday, July 29, 2011

Cash Flow Worksheet

Here is a nice Cash Flow Worksheet, that Neil a reader has but together.  You cannot argue the results since they are based on math.  However you can argue the assumptions, which, if you change, modify the results.  Assumptions are what you need to make in order to predict the future and they are laid out nicely for you on the last page.  Modify an assumption within reason and you flex the numbers, but the up trend remains.

This took a lot of work and shows a movement that is very hard to argue with.  That trend is GreenShift moving quickly towards profitability based on increasing cash flows as the COES already licenced continue to ramp up.



And thanks again Neil.



nobody12378 said...

Then why cannot KK pay his bills, and why does KK need up to 20 billion more shares to sell to augment cash flow in the near future?

Anonymous said...

The 20B (potential - not actual) share count has to stay since the share price times the total potential shares has to be more than the debt owed.

pps x os = debt outstanding

OS does not have to be used if cash flow allows payment in cash

However it has to be available as part of the terms of the loan.

nobody12378 said...

20 billion x 20 cents is 4 billion dollars! Even KK does not need that much "reserve cash". Since cash flow does not and will not in the near future (according to KK) allow payments in cash, the O/S will be used. Please tell me what I am not understanding here. Thank you, thank any one that can explain this issue. Please do not use "KK has said" in that response.

nobody12378 said...

Sorry, meant A/S in the above instead of O/S. I guess I am too spooked by the concept of 20 billion A/S with a 14 million O/S to even write "A/S".

Anonymous said...

the dilution post R/S is the concern...anyone not concerned is asleep.....this price could tank from the current .20 post split price....despite the major significant cash flow improvements...i see no reason to be unconcerned

Slashnuts said...

Corn Oil Income Well Above Expectations

"Mike Ritzenthaler – Piper Jaffray

My first question is around the corn oil extraction income that was well above our expectations and I guess my question is two parts, one is where there any outside surprises that you saw in the quarter whether it’s volumes or pricing or some mix or some other industry trend that might be a factor and I guess the second part is if you consider doing food grade oil?

Todd Becker

To answer your question on things that impacted the quarter, I mean what we did is we are getting all of our plants online and we started to push yields higher a little bit in the equipment as we were again lining it out and debottlenecking, so we saw a little bit of production but we also saw a very strong tallows and soy oil complex and while we don’t quite get soy oil prices, they will remain strong during the quarter and then they competed well – and corn oil competed well in the tallows market which actually had an uptick against the oil market.

So, in general, we are able to achieve a bit higher pricing at a little more volume than we thought we are going to get. In terms of food grade corn oil, this is actually at the backend of the process and well we look at those markets a lot from a pricing perspective. This is not an oil that can actually hit that type of market that would have to from our perspective in the plants that we run that would have been within application and the frontend recognition, we are not focused on food grade at all."

"Brent Rystrom – Feltl

Good, thank you. A couple of quick questions for you, just got of the Bungee call they were talking about sweeping crush margins coming in pretty tight here in the next couple of quarters. Does that have any implications for your corn oil?

Todd Becker

No, I mean if you look at oil we’re tracking today that’s what we compete with whether oil goes to 50 or 57, we are still remaining at discount still profitable in our corn oil segment. So today the curve on bean oil is in the 57% to 58% range and so we based ourselves over there so even if we want to be 50 it’d still be strong but I don’t believe it impacts us at all."

Neil said...

Ironically, I put these cash flow projections together to try to lower expectations with shareholders. I was trying to show that, even though thigs are moving in the right direction, there are short term constraints that may cause dilution and may explain the R/S. Also to show that a buyback in the short term is not advisable and that debt is not going to paid down within the next year (assuming no patent settlement, which would be a game changer). Instaad of this folks seem look at these cash flows as proof of how good things are!

Slashnuts said...

Corn Oil Provides Additional Motivation

"We do not intend to do anything but run our plants at full throttle.

Todd Becker

Thanks Jim and thanks everybody joining on the call today. Over the last 10 profitable quarters, our strategy was to operate safely, diversify our earning, maintain our focus on disciplinary risk management and lower our operating cost per gallon. This is all to protect our shareholders during a times of ethanol margin compression and to prove we have a sustainable business during the cyclical downturn.

Corn oil production made a significant contribution in our profitability generating $6.3 million of operating income and the sale of 21.5 million pounds of the product. Eight of our nine plants are in full production and the ninth plant will be producing corn oil by the end of the third quarter. We expect to be producing over 25 million pounds per quarter going forward with the additional plant and improved yield as we line out our equipment and debottleneck that process.

Because of the significant contribution corn oil makes to our business, we’ve broken it out as a segment for reporting purposes and remember we report corn oil as a net number after keeping our plants whole for the storage grains revenues and covering expenses related to the production of oil.

As I mentioned earlier, corn oil production is now its own segment, removed from the marketing and distribution group. We did see good growth opportunities in our Marketing and distribution segment as we focus on expanding Blend Star’s platform and as we become more active in the bio fuels and blended fuel markets. We believe the opportunities for downstream fuel distribution are substantial.

Corn oil production contributed 10.5 million to total revenues and 6.4 million operating income in the second quarter based on 21.5 million pounds of production.

Todd Becker

Thanks, Jerry. Ethanol demand remained solid and we have seen a widening of margins for the rest of 2011 and even into 2012. We have not seen this level of visibility on an 18-month curve for quite a while. There is one phenomenon taking place particularly in this third quarter that we haven’t seen for some time in the grain business.

As discussed, corn supplies will remain tight into the new crop, but we do not intend to do anything but run our plants at full throttle throughout. Corn oil now provides an additional motivation for us as well."

Lambertus said...


Beautiful spreadsheet.

Never mind the nobody's.

redman34990 said...

KK claims a $200,000 per qtr is needed which at current prices is 2.0 bil shrs. 4.0 bil to finish the year which is too close to the 20.0 bil ceiling. so the rs brings to 2.0 mil shrs per qtr as revs and earnings increase which could have a positive effect on the stk price but if not 4mil dilution is a small price to pay to fisish out the year. GPRE sold $10,500,000 in corn oil for the qtr assume the royalty is 20% because of their size and our need at the time the quarterly royalty is $2,000,000. for the eight plants dont be surprised if they sell $15.0 mil per qtr. I remember the original claim was for $18.0- $20.0 mill in extra revenue. Now add in all of our other customers sign and pending, then put the litigants into the mix with another 1.6bil equal to GPRE. now for the stretch POET ENERGY IS INSTALLING THE EQUIPMENT FOR THE CORN OIL EXTRACTION. They will have it up and running when there patent app. gets declined they are not even going to fight when they get the taste of the corn oil $$$$.

Anonymous said...

Neil, thank you for sharing this work. Im trying to digest the numbers. forgive my ignorance but what does b/f stand for?

Neil said...

Sorry - account-speak. It means "Brought forward" and c/f means "Carried Forward".

The GPRE corn oil sales of $10m compares with my estimate of approx. $16m, so it seems I may have been a bit high, probably on the corn oil price

Anonymous said...

here is something from forbes on greenshift

Anonymous said...

That forbes article tried to make fun of the idea of corn oil extraction and especially the idea of a biodiesel plant at an ethanol plant.

Fisher over at forbes looks like a fool now. The EPA and the ethanol industry has proven GreenShift to be right all along. 100% COES throughout the industry within a year, two at the max. It is no longer in doubt. EPA contantly upgrades their estimates

Anonymous said...

"Transesterfication - whatever that it?"

That statement alone showed forbes ignorant of the subject at the time, and anyone in the biodiesel industry is still lAO about that one.

Anonymous said...

They make fun of corn oil extraction - now a proven technology that everyone wants.

They make fun of countinuous biodiesel, a proven and patented technolgy, as well as the many pre treatments for corn oil, all proven.

If you posted that article to make fun of forbes, it worked.

The last 4 years have shown GreenShift to be right on all accords.

Their is an entire startup industry trying to make algea into fuel, no one is laughing now, except at forbes

Anonymous said...

Yea its going up up up and up. I am excited so where are we now at .0002. Wow now that is progress. Hey everybody you are waiting for the split. You got any more good news.

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