Sunday, May 4, 2008

Skunk Movie Review

GERS has come to that Indiana Jones Rope Bridge in the jungle. The void is immense, the treasure is on the other side, and the bridge is dangerous. The first four planks are missing, others are rotten, only a single grapevine (non OSHA approved) handrail. Since the debt hounds are closing in fast, we drop our pack and we run and we jump. We barely made the leap, yet we steady ourselves for the dangerous journey across the swaying bridge. As the ravenous debt hounds thunder up and yap helpless on the bank - they tear apart our dropped baggage, in the pack we dropped to make the initial leap - they find garbage - and that old GERS garbage sorting equipment.

Some shareholders might complain that they bought into the whole heavy metal recycle business. They were "sold" on that part of the business. The Skunk has the whole company history recorded in this blog all the way back to "Kreisler Bags" in 1979. Well, if you have not noticed - over the last few years - what was left of heavy industry in America either packed up and moved overseas - or they reduced their waste to a trickle. In either case that purpose for the company- heavy metal waste recycling and other "environmental services"- has become a shrinking non-market. The company survived the period (with debt, barely) and that's about it. Well, the Skunk never bought a share based on that business strategy. Every single share I have purchased and continue to hold is a bet on the Corn Oil Extraction/Biodiesel business. Now, anyone could have written off their original play on Veridium Corporation, but if you are still here you decided to stay for what some thought was the second act. Well, the Skunk did not come to see the second act of the same play. . .






Some of our shareholders came back from intermission criticising the company of actors and saying like they don't understand the plot. Its like they were watching "Rio Bravo" at the multiplex - and after a popcorn break they came back to another "plex". They sat down to "Sands of Iwo Jima" and start asking: Where are the horses? What happened to Dean Martin? The Skunk needs to break it to some of our GERS Knuckleheads - ITS A DIFFERENT MOVIE! Its a different plot. Its a different time. Sure, the leading man - John Wayne was in both movies - but that's it. (Now before a smartask short runs with this analogy to the climax of "Iwo Jima" - lets move on!)


Grading last week's Detailed Forecast April 28th – May 2nd
Best Buys(.11-.12) Actual (.105-.11) Not too far off = B
Closes above 20 (none - not this week) Actual (none) This is way too easy = A
Range for the week (.11-.15) Actual (10.5-.12) Real close on the bottom/Top killed me = C
Fridays Close (.14) Actual (10.5) Ouch! D-
We did not get the drift up - drifted slightly down = Overall grade C-

Forecast for the Week of 5-9 May 2008

I see the top bollinger band and the 50 day moving average have come together at 13.5 cents. The hint of a band contraction I had mentioned last week, but luckily did not call, disappeared. I see the PPS moving in a continued narrow band for the next week as buyers and sellers await the 1st quarter report due out on the 15th - Thursday of the following week. As the bottom band moves between 9 and 10 cents - it could be possible for the PPS to meet that band in the 9 cent range during the week, however I do not see a close below 10 cents - and that means I expect the bottom to hold firm again. Since the stock rose 20% above its bottom - and then reversed course - the Skunk is counting this as the 5th test of the dime bottom. With every successful test - the bottom becomes stronger. Like tempered steel - the heat strengthens our mettle.

Detailed Forecasts for 5-9 May 2008
Best Buys: 9.5-10.5
Closes above .15 (none this week)
Range for the Week: 9.5-.12
Friday's close: 11.5

Long Term Prediction FEB 2010 We stand with the details in the blog two weeks ago. The Skunk sees 280M Shares Outstanding - some 4.2 times the present levels. However, In order to have that number of OS shares - the EBITDA will be over 37 times its present amount - and that difference will be reflected in the share price. Using a factor of one-third to project net income from EBITDA, we can see: 28.97M/280M Shares = (net income)/TotalOS) = .1035(PE) X (Diluted EPS) = (est. PPS)100 x .1035 = $10.35 Share Price in FEB 2010**
**Note: I am a shareholder - I do not work for, nor do I receive any direct or indirect payment from GERS or anyone associated with them. (But it would be Kapitalist Kool if I did) I will not intentionally mislead - but I can be wrong (ask Mrs. Skunk for specific frequencies) - so do your own due diligence - and take responsibility for your own financial decisions – (and your own life in general) good or bad. And some good garage logic luck to ya.

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