Saturday, May 9, 2009

500M Shares Outstanding



The SkunK has done a fairly good job of predicting shares outstanding. In fact he has ranged from close to scary close. For the shares OS, my errors have normally been to the high side. (Lets skip over my pps forecasts for now! lol)

During the trading days between 5 March and 14 April 158,186,598 shares traded hands. During those same days we went from 150,356,886 to 245,560,894 shares OS. That is an increase of 95,204,008 shares OS.

In other words, for every 1 share traded, we increased our OS by .60184623225 - or let’s just say 60.1846% of a share.

From April 14th until today we have traded 438,421,691 shares. If we multiply that by .601846 we get about 263,862,341 additional shares OS. We can “estimate” we added that many shares to the OS since 14 April. If we then add 263,862,341 additional shares to the 245,560,894 we already had on 14 April - we get an estimate of 509,423,235 Shares OS. In other words, the Skunk estimates we hit our 500M maximum shares OS during last Friday’s afternoon trading. I would guess the additional +9M shares in my estimate are actually due to the abnormal amount of day trading over the last few days. I would guess we stand right up against the 500M maximum OS.

What the heck does that mean??

Beats me. But this is what could happen if my gut is right:

1. Selling pressure is gonna dry up real fast. Like what happened Friday afternoon.
2. The company, may release more good information, which should have an immediate effect on price.
3. sKUNk'S PUFFER FISH THEORY: With no selling pressure, the pps could be driven up in combination with the 500M OS - this will give the company a decent market capitalization.
4. The ballooned market capitalization will increase the companies overall value to assist in what the SkunK believes is surely being sought after: A deal to finance. This could be a buy in, a sale, an investment, a loan, a merger, whatever the heck you want to call it. . . a way to finance the COES.
5. This max 500M OS will also lead to either an increase in the OS, or a reverse split - or the SkunK has a hunch on a third option - we could see a transfer of our shares through merger into a new or existing public company.

Conclusion. The company may be up against the 500M OS. In the immediate future that should curtail selling pressure. GERS may take the opportunity to release more good news to increase the buying pressure. Max os, decreased selling, increased buying should red line market capitalization, putting GERS in the best possible position to do a deal. Expect the share structure to then change through an increase in OS, R/S, or merger.

If the SkunK is right then then we have seen the last 50M share day - let alone a hundred million! Next weeks trading will confirm it. Then we will see the actual numbers shortly. Remember the 1Q is due this Friday and with the 5 day extension is actually due just a week from Wednesday.

My Humble Opinion as always,
SkunK

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