Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Today is the day

Today is the day we will see the annual report. It may come after trading hours, and I will say at 1648et. Edgar will be just too busy today to wait until the last second. Here is a compilation of what the SkunK expects we might see.

What to expect
As I have made the point many times, the economy is in a deep recession and the bio-diesel world is in a depression. I am not expecting to see roses blossom in a hurricane.

1. Cost cutting. With the Adrian biodiesel plant idled I expect to see cost cutting to the bone. We do not have the cash to operate as usual with no operational margins. From what was about 150 employees after the Next Diesel acquisition - I expect to see less than half of that today. 50-75 employees?

2. GS Design. I expect that GS Design will be reduced or absorbed into the Alpharetta, GA operation. With NO third party biodiesel plants being built. (Why build when you can buy for pennies on the dollar at foreclosure auction?) With not much of anything being built or expanded in the country - it would be hard to justify maintaining a metal fabricating plant. I suspect future COES will be contracted out and the construction will be supervised by Greenshift Technicians.

3. COES production. This report will include COES production through the end of the year. I wish to see three COES producing for the entire quarter. 1.3x.25=.325mmgy + 1.5 x 2 x .25=.75mmgy. Operating at 65% of capacity we should see 698,750 gallons of corn oil produced. With NextDiesel idled we will see lower margins per gallon, but selling to local plants we may see less transportation/operational costs.

4. Shares Outstanding. The SkunK will stick with his previous estimate of 262,712,373 shares OS as of 14 April. I made this estimate in the 4 April blog.

5. Like an old record I will play this tune again. We need to see real financing and good production numbers on the COES. I do not expect to see a financing deal in the annual. However, I sure would like to be surprised. . .

Good Luck
SkunK

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