March Volume

The volume was up in March. Way up. Nothing like a picture to really give you an idea of what the magnitude of the volume was. We were more than double last months all time high and well over ten times normal volume.

On November 19, 2008 our OS was was 89,809,764. Then 105,693,640 shares traded in the next 72 trading days. Next our OS was again reported through 6 March as 150,356,886 - or a total increase of 60,547,122 shares.

Using the original SkunK formula to estimate dilution - We would subtract out a normal trading day (150,000/day and then add in 70% of the increased trading.) Back checking this formula over the same dates we see [72x150,000 = 10,800,000. 105,693,640-10,800,000=94,893,640. 94,893,640x.70=66,125,548.]

You can see I was scary close - however I overestimated dilution by about 10%. I could reduce the 70% - but I do not think that is the problem. Since this tried and true method started - we have more than doubled our shares OS. Since we have more shares - we need to increase the normal shares traded per day to 266,635. (I will save you the algebra but lets see if its right) Back checking that again we see:[72x266,635=19,197,720. 105,693,640-19,197,720=86,495,920. 86,495,920x.70=60,547,144. Now we are within 22 shares of actual - since I did not use fractions to get my average daily trades - that's plenty close for SkunK work.
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Now lets use this refined SkunK method to see how we finished the month of March.

Our last reported OS was through March 5th and was 150,356,886. There were 116,819,228 shares traded in March. Of those 107,983,041 shares were traded in the 18 trading days from the 6th until the end of the month. {18x266,635=4,799,430. 107,983,041-4,799,430=103,183,611. 103,183,611x.7=72,228,528. The SkunK estimates as of cob 31 March 2009 we have 150,356,886+72,228,528= 222,585,414 shares OS.

Here is a SkunK chart showing where we stand if my estimate is correct:

Unless you got 100/20 vision click here to see full size. . .
http://docs.google.com/Doc?id=dgzzx2hv_51fd7jv8hc

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SkunK Prediction
Assuming we continue this rate of dilution {AND assuming that is what we have seen over the last 18 trading days} and assuming the Annual Report is released on 15 April and reports the OS as of the 14th - the SkunK will predict a reported OS of 262,712,373.
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Now this SkunK prediction is based on what has happened in the most recent period that we have information for. Could this be wrong? Of course it could. When trends change, I can modify my math. But that is only after the fact. We should know soon enough how close my estimate is.

In my opinion I think it is obvious that those who claimed we had ANY significant dilution from mid-May to December 2008 were wrong. Just as wrong as anyone who thinks we have not had significant dilution since the first of the year. Ms. Miscalculation has shown no favorites in this stock!

This is all my opinion and everything here should be taken as such. Dah. As always, I expect if you ride my logic train at all, you will get off when it feels like I took a wrong turn.
Good Luck,

SkunK