Friday, October 31, 2008

Stock Price!


The number one story the last two weeks is the stock price. It went up. and up. And Up. When we look at the "textbook" stock chart we see a perfect "W" double bottom.
Now lets look at GERS stock in real life below. Looks pretty good to the ol'SkunK, but you make up your own mind. If you were a technician you might tell me that the two bottoms should a couple weeks apart, best if about three months. The bottom should have heavy volume (remember the three days at +1M shares each?) The right side should have generally less volume until it hits the confirmation point. We haven't yet hit the confirmation point - here it is six cents - the point we started the pattern. As it breaks through at 6 cents we should have good volume. In any case, even if you do not believe in this hocus pocus, we should at least know what the Technical Analysis Traders will be looking for as they flock to this chart. If this is not our double bottom then we may get another test of the low. For those of you who missed out on the mid month "buys" you could get a second chance to load up. For those who foresee the worst, you might get (at least) one more chance to say "I told you so!"

Statistics:
In October we may have seen our absolute low(10Oct .0062). In October we have been up eleven trading days, down eight days and held our own on 4. Over the last 11 trading days we have finished the day down only once. We have not traded below 2 cents for nine consecutive trading days.

In the last Eleven trading days we have been down only one day. We started this week at .03 and finished at .05 - up 67%.

Well SkunK, are you ready to lead the Parade? Think it's all Blue skies ahead??

I know, we have all been underwater for so long, it feels good to get a breath of oxygen. I read a little chest beating on boards and smile. Nothing is sure in this life except two things. Even the SkunK, the greatest cheerleader of all time, will not include GERS as one of those two sure things. Lets not get ahead of ourselves. Sure, we may have lived through the bottom this month and all investors should take a deep breath. Sure, we may have had a nice little run. Do I think its only up from here? No. We only went up as fast as we went down and on a low volume stock (least it was low volume) it can happen again. The SkunK can see plenty of speed bumps in the road ahead, some may be serious. But I do think, as I always have, that this stock will eventually be priced quite a distance up from here. With a super decent financing deal and a few months of multiple COES operating at or above capacity, we could see my Feb 2010 forecast ($3.72 pps#) come flying at us at light speed in under a year. Then again, with no financing and no great COES production numbers to confirm our great potential we could easily retest our lows. . .

It was nice to read what I thought were a couple? Technical Analysis (TA) traders come up on the boards. The same way our chart has chased away the technical dudes over the last year or so, our chart, if it builds on its recent nice move, will start to attract these TA traders like bees to honey. They will buy and sell, come and go. They don't know and don't care if we sell corn oil or corn flakes. They will increase the volume and liquidity and help to pollinate this stock.

Yea Glorious Day Approacheth (.06)
As described in previous blogs, the glorious day the SkunK much looks forward to is the day the GERS 50 day moving average moves through the 200 day average. Then and only then will he know he made the right decision to buy here. He thinks he did. But if/when it does, all will be confirmed for him. As predicted the 200 day MA has moved below a dime to .093, while the 50 day moving average has just started to climb in the last couple days, now standing at .033. From now on I will weekly announce or cover "the spread". That "spread" being the difference between the two MAs - or .06 today. I have calculated that this will go to zero and the cross will occur on my birthday. Since I don't pass personal information about anyone on this blog, now I can't tell you what that day is. Guess I'll tell you if I was right or not when it happens. :`)

What the hey is this?

0.035 3,343,333 OBB 15:44:12

I swear (or affirm) "With all this volume, if we don't have any dilution in the 3Q report , I will chug-a-lug that bottle of corn oil I keep hidden for just such occasions." That will definitely clear my mind. (and everything else!)

Man, we have seen some sales in the last hour of trading - but this baby was off the charts! That trade was worth $117,016.66. To give you an idea how big this 3,334,333 trade was, last month we traded 3,382,033 - for the whole bloom'ng month!! We have never traded over 4 million shares in a month this year. We will this month. 3.78M in a day. Three other days over a million shares traded. What really surprised the SkunK here was the recovery after this sale. If this was simply an equity dump by the company to cover the checks clearing on Monday, or by Yagi to cover convertible debt, there were plenty of happy buyers. At the close 15 minutes later, the ask was at .06, with only two other market makers at .07 and then no other sellers till a dime. The bid was at .05 with two other market makers above the 3.5 just traded. Heck, I can't say for sure, but having exchanged a months worth of shares in a single trade without blinking an eye, and coming up on the meat of our 5 day "sweet period", I gotta think we got at least a couple days left in this run.

PS. Last couple days I have locked in some profits and am in the black on the Trading Posts in the right column.

More, SkunK

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