Message Board Sentiment

Revenues were over 18% above Skunk's estimate of $5,538,125. Detailed cyphering to come.

Our total revenues were $6,555,753 as compared to $1,006,208 in revenues for 2007;

http://www.nqb.com/edgar/GetFilingHtml?FilingID=5951460

The GERS Men in Montana - the Oilseed Crush Plant - Some of the New Guys

Just in from the garden. Finally, the frost has left Kornfield Kounty for a couple months. I can work the soil in the small plot I have hand carved amongst the old growth mixed hardwoods which surround me. Just got (almost) all the vegetables planted and the things like tomatoes and peppers out from behind the window and into the ground. For those who work hard to keep your hands clean - let me tell you what you are missing. Few things in life are as satisfying as starting with a promise (seed) and ending up with something as basic as providing nutrition for your family. Some would say fishing is the same - but although I like to fish, I would argue that it does not involve the same long term faith and investment of effort that gardening does. Fishing involves a day. A garden involves three seasons. Raising a child might be the best long range garden type investment we will ever run into. The investment in time and money is enormous, yet if the investment is properly managed, the payoff can dwarf the investment a thousandfold. Like a garden, once the seed is planted (the fun part), the real work has just begun.
I've never been a short term foster parent, but I guess it has to be just a tiny, little like hunting Skunk Stocks. Both require commitment and a leap of faith. The whole idea is picking something out that has seen trouble, maybe someone made some bad choices. Picking up something that others have cast aside. Others can only see the problems, you see the potential. Others look at what the past was. You see what the future can be. In the case of a stock, watching a reversal in a turn around stock can be the most satisfying thing in your financial life. Being able to turn a child around, well that also changes lives - and family trees. If this stock is going to turn around we will see it begin to happen soon. If it is not going to turn around we will know that pretty fast as well. The Skunk knows this for a number of reasons. One of the more obvious is the financial situation. We need to get COES on line and at full production fast - in order to provide the life blood of this company - to pay the bills and service the debt. The Skunk wants answers on the construction of COES and COES production. AND financing. I have already covered these things in painful detail last week and in weeks past.

Today the subject is negative sentiment. Before a skunk stock reaches its low and begins to turn around it has to reach its bottom. Nobody wants the stock. Nobody will admit to owning it. It is unpopular because it is low. It is low because it is unpopular. The tired old shareholders sell and new money takes its place. The Skunk can see a year ago we had over 12,000 shareholders? How many among the various companies?? Today we have about 900. We have (temporarily?) achieved unpopularity. Will the 240,000 shares that sold for .7 be remembered as the bottom? It all depends on the company from here. The first quarter report coming out next week will be important. Almost every dollar of revenue will be from a source that was not even in existence during the first quarter last year. The COES are new. The bio-diesel construction is new. The Montana Oil Crushing is new. The bio-diesel services are new. The old garbage business was sold - and good riddance. Be disappointed in the share price. But everyone should acknowledge that this is a new company. With a new game plan. With mostly new management. With a true board of directors. AND the question is: With a new future??

Board Sentiment
In order to trend sentiment, the Skunk looked at two, seven day periods a month apart. Each period was the same in that; first it was the walk up to the Annual Report and then; prior to our scheduled release of the First Quarter Report. The actual periods were April 8-14th and May 8th -14th. Obviously other days could have been chosen - but I thought this would give an adequate sample. I chose the Yahoo Message Board and simply counted the number of negative and positive posts. Since I read the posts everyday - I am familiar with who posts from each side of the aisle. For all of you who think you are the only unbiased poster - I did have to re-read a couple posts to confirm where they were coming from - so all can pretend you were that single complicated poster. In any case here is what I found. During the April period their was some 76 posts during the 7 day period. 42 or 55% of the posts were negative towards the stock. That is about a 4-3 ratio. During the May period there were 161 posts and 106 were negative. That is 66% or a 2-1 ratio of negative postings. What I found then, was a significant increase in the ratio of negative sentiment over a one month period. For those who read the boards - you already knew that. For those contrarians who are bullish on this stock - (we are an endangered species and deserve protection) this could mean we are at or near the bottom.





For those bears who think we are all on a one way street - you could be near your unprofitable dream of being right on this stock for the first time.


Extreme Bearishness a Definite Bullish Sign
This article is a few months old, and it relates to the stock market as a whole, but I offer it for those interested in such things.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/45142-extreme-bearishness-a-definite-bullish-sign

What is a contrarian investor? ( Or as I like to say a Skunkhunter) This simple, short definition is from our friends at Wikipedia:
In finance, a contrarian is one who attempts to profit by investing in a manner that differs from the conventional wisdom, when the consensus opinion appears to be wrong. A contrarian believes that certain crowd behavior among investors can lead to exploitable mispricings in securities markets. For example, widespread pessimism about a stock can drive a price so low that it overstates the company's risks, and understates its prospects for returning to profitability. Identifying and purchasing such distressed stocks, and selling them after the company recovers, can lead to above-average gains.

REVIEW
Last weeks prediction was based on a First Quarter Report coming out on Thursday. Since it did not come out - and we got an extension: We did not get a big move - up or down. Instead we got a general glide to the upside. So if you moved the prediction two weeks ago to last week and last weeks to next - OH never mind - I just blew it! Technically, one has to be glad that our hard ten seems to have reestablished itself as the floor. Fears of it becoming a hard ceiling can be pushed aside - for now!

Grade for 12 - 15 May 2008
Best Buys .7 - .8 (actual 8.5 - 9.5) Never took the dip - in fact only a few traded below .10 = D
Weekly range .7-.16(actual 8.5 - .11) Missed on both ends, no quarterly report = D
Closes above .15 One - Friday (none) No report! = D-
Fridays Close .15 (Actual .10) WOW! Skunk that is 50% off! You got spanked! = D - - - - -
Overall grade for the week: D- (that's a single minus here).

FORECASTS
The Skunk sees the quarterly report coming out Monday - maybe after hours. On a quarterly report the extension is only for 5 calender days:
"will be filed on or before the fifth calendar day following the prescribed due date;"

So the Report is now actually due on the 20th - but since the Company did not take the whole extension for the annual - I expect them to try and surprise by coming out on Monday afternoon or after hours.


Short Term Prediction for 19 - 23 May 2008
Best Buys .10-.11
Weekly range .10-.16
Closes at or above .15 (One)
Friday's Close .15

Long Term Prediction FEB 2010
As promised, the Skunk will adjust his forecast as his assumptions change based on the best information available . We stand with most of the details in the blog from weeks ago. However, reflecting his concerns about COES production combined with the failure to systematically bring one COES online during either March, April and half of May, the Skunk has recently reduced his PE factor to 75. The Skunk will be quick to move this factor up or down depending on information provided or not provided by the company in the following days. The Skunk sees 280M Shares Outstanding - some 4.2 times the present levels. However, In order to have that number of OS shares - the EBITDA will be over 37 times its present amount - and that difference will be reflected in the share price. Using a factor of one-third to project net income from EBITDA, we can see: 28.97M/280M Shares = (net income)/TotalOS) = .1035(PE) X (Diluted EPS) = (est. PPS)75 x .1035 =
$7.76 Share Price in FEB 2010**
**Note: I am a shareholder - I do not work for, nor do I receive any direct or indirect payment from GERS or anyone associated with them. (But it would be Kapitalist Kool if I did) I will not intentionally mislead - but I can be wrong (ask Mrs. Skunk for specific frequencies) - so do your own due diligence - and take responsibility for your own financial decisions – (and your own life in general) good or bad. And some good garage logic luck to ya.