Saturday, March 8, 2008

Skunk Reporting from the 2008 Ethanol Conference in Orlando, FL

Skunk working undercover at the Ethanol Conference in Orlando - In order to hide my true identity and move unnoticed in the crowds - this year I went as a Kernel of Korn. The next picture is also from
the 2008 Ethanol Conference. The production seems to rise with the market - kind of supports the whole Capitalism thing. I believe those flat-lander boys in Iowa will get 180+bu/Acre this year. Ethanol production per acre is increasing also. In 2002 an acre of corn produced 375 gallons; last year the average was about 450 gallons. "Dupont and Pioneer suggest that by 2020 we'll be getting 1,000 gallons per acre," That takes into account yield increases, changes in starch and fiber and the (cellulosic) use of some parts of the corn stover and cob."

SKUNK NEWS EXCLUSIVE GreenShift Corporation Attendees -
Greg Barlage, David Cantrell, Ed Carroll and Kevin Kreisler from NY, NY Greeenshift HQ
Christopher Kennedy, Dan Page and David Winsness from the Alpharetta, GA Production Facility.

Corn Prices Tomorrow
July 2009 corn futures traded in all-time-record territory, hitting a high of $5.67






This tall building to our right is One Penn Plaza in New York City. Greenshift HQ is at Suite 1612. Somebody leave me a comment if they have ever been there. How come the theme to Green Acres runs through my head whenever I look at that view?

SUMMARY and Skunk's grade For the WEEK Two weeks ago Friday this stock closed at .17 Last Friday it closed at .175 This Friday it closed at .17 I know I have been saying tight trading range for the last two weeks - but if this was the whole story we might as well watch paint dry. Luckily for you adrenaline junkies, we have been all over in true micro cap fashion and after we tested our recent lows on Friday we found a spring board and finished higher for the day and only fractionally lower for the week.
Lets get Honest - this week Skunk stunk up the weekly forcast!!


Actual/Predicted & Skunk's Grade of Skunk


Trading range Actual: .12-.20/Predicted .17-.28 Total Spread close but down = D
Closes above .20 Actual: None /Predicted 4 Skunk Grade = F No Excuses
Close up Friday: Actual .17 / Predicted .23 Skunk Grade = D Market down overall?
Best Buy: Actual .12 / Predicted .17-.18 Skunk Grade =D+ Few shares traded so low

Overall I give myself a D for the week. To all my guests - I am afraid you got just what you paid for in the forecast department this week. I can see now that the support I saw at twenty cents for the last two weeks was really still a ceiling that needs a break through. I averaged my weekly grade up to a D since my warning came true that if anything negative about "the event" came out - it would lead to the testing of the recent lows. The taking private of GS Agri-fuels went by almost without a hitch - the continued trading of GSHF for the month - although not substantive - still rattled skittish investors. The nice snap up off of .12 to finish on the days high of .17 was nothing short of GREAT - even though it was on low volume.


FORECASTS**


For the week of 10 - 14 March


The old Skunk Crystal Ball had a few smudges on it from last week - so I polished it up with a little corn oil. I have see an increasing volume. Last Tuesday's daily volume was the highest since last June. I am seeing a slight start of a contraction in the Bollinger Bands - although not enough to call a breakout this next week, we are close. For those of you who are into charts - back test some of those past GERS breakouts we would like to see again. In the move last June I see contracting bands, a tight trading range and a bounce off the lows just before the move. If you are into ancient history look at the moves at both the start of May and the end of Oct 2001 as well. I am not saying this is the week - but I am saying this is the year. And depending on what news is released (or rumored early) over the next 37 days - I expect to see a significant move in one direction or the other.

I see a trading range much the same as last week .15-.23

and this is the week we get a close above .20

and I call it for next Friday's close at .22
If you need to buy it is between .15 and .17

Significant events Ahead:You basically get 90 days after the end of the our fiscal (calendar) year to file an annual report. You can get an automatic 15 day extension. We used the 90 day grace period and the 15 day extension in 2003, 2004, 2006 & 2007. We did not file an extension in 2005. This tells me we have an 80% chance we will see a request for extension on or about 30 March 2008 rather than the actual report. If the extension is used the annual report would then be filed and posted about 15-17 April. One more curious thing about the spring 2005 (for 2004 calendar year) report was that it was both on time and the last time total stockholder equity was in the black. A cynical skunk might suggest that the trip home from school is a lot shorter with a good report card. I would guess that a timely report will definitely bring good news - an extension may mean bad news - or it may mean the bean counters really are as busy as two one legged men in a three legged race.


1st Quarter 2008 will be reported by May 15th. This has been timely in the past. It will come only 30 to 45 days after the annual report.


$12.50 Share Price in FEB 2010**

Skunk has no stinking reason to change his long range prediction - The following positive news this week have helped to reinforce my outlook. 1. The payment date for GS AgriFuels shareholders is set at 27 Mar 2008. Greenshift now owns 100% of the Outstanding share. 2. This seals the deal on the consolidation. One Public Company, one share price.3. Little noticed was the transformation of the shareholder letter dtd Feb 19 into an Form 8-K SEC filing received on 6 Mar. It is the first to be from Kevin Kreisler to the shareholders of Greenshift. Look at the one dtd 9 Nov 07 - It was to Greenshift and then listed all the subsidiaries.


For how I came to this number see details from last two weeks. Expect the number to be refined as information is gleamed from the before mentioned, upcoming annual report.


++ When the bands narrow drastically, a sharp expansion in volatility usually occurs in the very near future.


Disclaimer - this is a healthy and as of yet unprofitable addiction - please note the notes below about being responsible for yourself and your money.

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