Friday, February 22, 2008

Greenshift Junky - reporting from frozen Kornfield County - next post by NOON SUNDAY





I am a self proclaimed Greenshift Junky. That's right, I got Kevin Kreisler's picture* on my wall. Its not in a frame as of yet, although if the price of GERS rises enough for me to retire early it will be. I certainly can't promise the picture will not acquire a few dart holes along the (sure to be) bumpy road ahead. For those of you who stumbled on this blog and don't know what the hell I am talking about - go do some due diligence (dd) on the stock and maybe some of this will make sense. This company holds both the promise of the ages and the heartbreak of psoriasis for all who have followed it for any time. I am a jaded true believer - a long term hold - and hopefully this blog will become a one stop shop for all those who are looking for a Greenshift fix.
First I would like to comment on this weeks events. After the exciting run up last week the question was: "Would we fall like a rock to test new lows again?? All three major boards were abuzz over the three day weekend about how investors were locked out of their stocks and how the run up last week was artificial due to the lack of sellers. It did not help that many could not reach the Yahoo board since the name change. Only those who had it locked as a favorite could access it. The bull and the hub kept moving along with the regular cast of characters - although the Raging Bull did not change its name to GERS until today. It was early morning on the 19th before the Yahoo board came back to life as GERS. Investors Hub redid the iHub quickly although the brass still needs a little polish. To summarize the week the stock did not test the new lows and seemed to absorb the new sellers nicely. It seems that everyone who wanted to -could sell their shares by the end of the week - and although GERS was down for the week after its run from .092 to .35 last week - it seemed to find good stability at its Friday close of .17c
Next (Foreseeable) Significant Events:

COB 29 February, 2008 - GERS takes GS Agrifuels private.

COB 31 March, 2008 - All shareholders of GS Agrifuels will have received .50/share.

31March, 2008 4th Quarter/Annual Report

15April, 2008 1st Quarter Report
Forecasts**

Next Week 25 -29 Feb 2008

This week will be the second week of consolidation over last weeks gains. I see some support at the .20 level. I see a close above .20 early in the week and most of the week spent in the .15 to .25 range. The stock will close Friday up 24% at .21. I am looking to buy between .15 and .17.
If it sinks below .15 (I don't think it will!) I will put in big order limits at .11 and .10 - cause if she pushes through .15 she may well test those recent lows.


Next 24 Months and beyond!

I think we are headed up - way up. This is why . . .


From the Shareholder Letter dated 02/19/08 we see $12 million in EBITDA from the (presently operational) but now expanded Oilseed Crushing Facility to be completed this year.
We have one COE facility in full operation. Just this facility and the Oilseed Facility above put the company in the black - profitable - the debt is being attacked as we speak - building shareholder wealth. Six more facilities are under construction and will be completed in the next 9 months. We see at least $50 million in annualized EBITDA from corn oil extraction COE by the end of 2009. These contracts are locked in for ten years. When this is done - with less than 5% of the potential market share - GERS can basically self finance - and ramp up to their stated first goal of 20% market share - or $200M EBITDA.

GERS is building biodiesel facilities for third party clients. Two in 2007 and four more in 2008. The four inked deals will provide some 15m in sales this year. Many more only await client financing. In the sharholder letter dtd 9 November 2007 the total estimated revenue from Biodiesel sales was 53m with an EBITDA of 13M.

Lets forget all the hoopla over the algae for now, even if we are the ones who crack that nut - it will be a few years before it pays any bills. So lets make a guess about where we stand in 12-24 months. From above we have an EBITDA of 75M by the end of 2009. If we take last quarter as a guide (why not) about one third EBITDA ends up as net income. So I will say 25m net income. We have a half billion common share float. We also have 1M preferred shares that belong to Mr. Keisler. The fully diluted and outstanding share number were set at 140,000,000. There is some tied to debt and may also be redeemed later. I am still trying to get a definitive answer here where we stand - but lets get real (considering history here) and say we at 175M shares today and will be at 200M shares in 24 months.
25m/200m = (net income)/(TotalOS) = diluted EPS = .125
(PE) X (Diluted EPS) = (PPS)
100 x 12.5 =

$12.50 Share Price in FEB 2010**



Note the Fellow Corn Consumer
above - looking fat for end winter.
All Pictures taken by skunkhunter's daughter just
outside of Kornfield County, 13 miles north of Hooterville
- today - 22 Feb 2008
Note: I am a shareholder - I do not work for, nor do I receive any direct or indirect payment from GERS or anyone associated with them. I will not intentionally mislead - but I can be wrong - so do your own due diligence - and take responsibility for your own financial decisions - good or bad.
*(Its a PR picture - "I'm not a stalker!" - no really)
(ETHICS: No personal phone number/address/email of the Kreisler family or any employee of GERS will be published as the result of due diligence performed on this stock.)
**This is a forecast - This is just my stinking opinion! I'm trying to predict the future here. Humans have had little luck in such endeavors. If you want to be a dumb ass and throw your money away based on what I say - well good luck.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Wow - your a Greenshift Junky too??
I can quit anytime I want . .

Anonymous said...

Great Job on covering the entire story (good prospects and bad history)

 
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