Alternate Theory. What if the GERS 3Q had accelerated corn oil sales due to the tax credit expiring at the end of the year? Followed by record production at BioDiesel facilities in the 4Q. BioDiesel producers might have bought and stored feedstock during the later half of the 3Q - especially high crush inedible corn oil feedstock - filling their storage tanks and even purchasing it while settling/stored in the corn oil tanks at ethanol plants preparing for a flat out production run to earn the tax credit in the 4Q?
1. This might explain flat sales of corn oil at GPRE in the 4Q - Were they in part replenishing storage/settling in December while the biodiesel industry ran on accumulated feedstock?
2. This might explain the record 4Q biodiesel production in the industry.
3. This might explain the tremendous bump in GERS 3Q revenues, followed by a down turn in the 4Q. If you averaged the 3Q and 4Q together might it better represent the long term picture?
****************************
We are the largest producer of biodiesel in the United States based on gallons produced. Page 2
The blenders’ tax credit provided a $1.00 per gallon excise tax credit to the first person who blends the biodiesel with at least 0.1% petroleum-based diesel fuel. The blenders’ tax credit can then be credited against such blenders’ federal excise tax liability or the blender can obtain a cash refund from the United States Treasury for the value of the credit. The blenders’ tax credit became effective January 1, 2005 and then lapsed January 1, 2010 before being reinstated retroactively on December 17, 2010. The blenders’ tax credit again expired as of December 31, 2011 and it is uncertain whether it will be reinstated. Page 8 Here
The U.S. biodiesel industry produced 135 million gallons of fuel in the first two months of 2012, according to new numbers released by the EPA Wednesday.
The recent volume is ahead of the 80 million gallons produced in the same two months of 2011, but down from the record production late last year when the industry exceeded 100 million gallons per month for five consecutive months and reached a peak of 160 million gallons in December. cited HERE
Used cooking oil and inedible corn oil can be purchased in nearby forward positions of three to twelve months, and are sometimes indexed to the New York Mercantile Exchange, or NYMEX, heating oil index. We maintain both long term contractual arrangements and long term trading relationships with key feedstock suppliers, which provide us with an advantage. Some of these relationships are with our investors including West Central and Bunge. Here
SkunK
In any case I am just throwing out an alternate theory here. It might have nothing to do with the litigation - GreenShift might not be free to discuss its customers' business plan. Not pushing this idea - just looking around. If you see holes feel free to point them out.
Bonus:
The weight of corn oil? Top of page 42
"Inedible corn oil prices are reported as the monthly average of the daily market values (Based on 8.2 pounds per gallon)".
(Now that is different from what I have seen published by others in the industry)
And they call this transparency? We are struggling to understand what is going on, multiple hypotheses have been advanced, folks that have been following their company for years are perplexed, and we think that results from Q1 will answer the mystery. If I am correct it will not and until the litigation is concluded and the attorneys release their choke-hold we will not know what has or is happening. Let’s get this litigation over sooner than later!!! Not much is going to happen to the most important statistic, the PPS, until then, for so many reasons.
ReplyDeleteNobody,
ReplyDeleteGet a life and a new job.
You're a terrible basher as everyone has figured you out. I heard Starbucks is hiring.
Good luck!
production declines from the tax break seem an obvious reason for "missing money" but time will tell.
ReplyDelete007 movie scripts until then.
6:58 Anonyass:
ReplyDeleteDon't you have something relevant to the issue to add?
Nobody,
ReplyDeleteAll you do is talk negative. Why not get away from this then if you have all these concerns.
Any normal shareholder who talks like this would just sell and walk away. But you continue with your pathetic bashing.
So, if you are a true shareholder, you would not act this way. Last thing you want to do is questuon everything in a negative way about a stock you own. However, this is what you do. Everyone has figured you out and yet, you continue to do this which tells me you are not to bright and a miserable person for whatever reason.
Explain to me if you are a true shareholder, why you would act this way assuming it could hurt the PPS and scare other investors away. You're scummy in my view and I have proven that. Now show me how I am rong.
Look for to your low IQ answer.
Anonymous,
ReplyDelete"if you are a true shareholder you would not act this way."
This is not religion, we're supposed to invest to make money. Why on earth would you not ask hard questions and "act like this".
"Last thing you do is question everything in a negative way.."
That might be the last thing you do. Those of us that like to have as clear an idea as possible about the companies we're investing in will question things. Of course questioning things is by its nature in this context negative for the most part. GERS makes it difficult to do otherwise with the lack of transparency.
"You're scummy in my view and I have proven that"
You really need to have a more mature approach to investing before you lose all your money.
Thank you Skunk for keeping the blog going.
ReplyDeleteI have been busy with personal issues and it's good to know I can turn to the blog to catch up on GERS news.
Thank you Skunk for keeping the blog going.
ReplyDeleteI have been busy with personal issues and it's good to know I can turn to the blog to catch up on GERS news.
Neil,
ReplyDeleteYou still in bed with your other basher (nobody) as we all can see.
Hope it's owrth it.
Neil,
ReplyDeleteYou cannot tell me that Nobody's only focus is not on the negatives of this company. Never does he talk about the goods here what the company has accomplished so far.
How do you not see that?
Skribe best wishes to u
ReplyDeleteHope to hear from u soon
Nycdream
neil an nobody one in the same?
ReplyDeleteinfringers want litigation to end its led to tidal wave of new contracts
ReplyDeleteOn Ihub, Nobody stated that he has average down since the RS while at the same time, been very critical of this stock and the company the whole time.
ReplyDeleteSo, you draw your own conclusion folks.
This is what I mean by a really pathetic basher. He's been so negative and yet, he states that he has average down many times since RS.
For those that believe that critical questions are synonymous with bashing please leave your cash at the door, and please enter the world of zealots where beliefs are more important than knowledge. Now that you have confirmed that I am not a GERS zealot but a GERS investor, is this issue this out of your system and can we stay on topic here? What insights or analyses do you have to offer?
ReplyDeleteNobody,
ReplyDeleteIt has not been confirmed that you are a Gers investor.
Based on your negativity over time, why did you continue to invest as you say many times after the rs?
Look forward to your answer if you ever decide to answer it which you have not. Stop dancing around the question and answer it.
Thanks.
Neil and nobody are obviously two separate investors that have raised questions, some of which may be important to each of us. It would be nice to hear nobody make a case both ways, because "nobody" appears to be doing any fundamental analysis here to derive a meaningful estimate of pps.
ReplyDeleteI find it interesting that Nobody will not answer that person question on why he kep buying the stock after the RS and yet, conitnue to be highly critical of the company.
ReplyDeleteAny thoughts?
Do you have to look outside each morning to know that sun has risen? The answer to that question is so elementary Watson that I am embarrassed to enlighten you. What is done is done. The question before us now is whether it is wise to invest more in GERS at this time? What did you think the answer was; waiting for little green men to tell me what to do? That approach is for the zealots here.
ReplyDeleteNobody, you a a very strange bird!
ReplyDeleteThat's all I have to say!
I believe REX 10 k out
ReplyDeleteNycdream
Looks like they just installed coes at nugen and one earth facilities and expect to begin generating revenues from corn oil sales in first half of 2012
ReplyDeleteHope its ours.
Nycdream
Thought you might want to know nobody, none of these previous comments was me. Lol if I got something to say to ya it won't say anonymous. I've got the balls to tell you even if we where face to face. I ain't scared. I'm from the south boy, I hunt bears with a switch. Just thought you'd like to know. Oh and you haven't convinced me of anything. If you want to convince people your an investor try doing a little dd instead of crying for your baba all the time!
ReplyDeleteOh and no I'm not telling you to break out the pom poms, we would just like to here something else out of you once and a while. When we read your post its like listening to a broken record that skips and keeps repeating the same line of chorus over and over. Just saying it would be nice to here something a little bit different out of you. Show ud there is an investor side to you and we might start taking what you say a little more serious. Honestly I don't read most of your post anymore because I feel like you think dd stands for die gers die. And most of your post remind me of taking roadtrips with my kids when they where little. Are we there yet are we there yet. Well anyways I know you'll have some sort of smart aleck remark to say. But if you want more people to take you serious you might try a few of these suggestions
ReplyDeleteIf you have done ANY reading you would know that over the years I have brought more original information to these discussions than most blogger and posters. At this moment we are in contact with REX in an attempt to answer the current question about their COES license. We will be having a face-to face meeting with GERS executives this June to address more issues. Some of the information in the past was not positive, I suspect some we find in the future will not be pleasant either. By definition of the GERS' zealots that makes me a basher. I hope that you have noticed that others are now starting to bring critical questions forward as well. Soon you may be outnumbered.
ReplyDeleteIn response to your bragging I can only say that you cannot think with gonads and beliefs are not information. If you are still of the mind that GERS is soon going to make a monotonic climb to $1 a share, you must be thinking with your gonads and not really reading and digesting the material and the lack of material available on GERS. I guess that is what you call dd -- try it.
Definition of MONOTONIC
ReplyDelete1: characterized by the use of or uttered in a monotone
2: having the property either of never increasing or of never decreasing as the values of the independent variable or the subscripts of the terms increase
The use of monotonic above is oxymoronic
ReplyDeleteMonotonic -- "Of or being a sequence, the successive members of which either consistently increase or decrease but do not oscillate in relative value". What does that say about the morons that cannot read a dictionary. A monotonic climb in PPS would be one that did not retrace. Perfectly understandable to any one with high school education.
ReplyDeleteEveryone,
ReplyDeletePlease ignore NOBODY! We knos why he's here and not worth getting into any type of discussion with him.
There's a reason why he's a miserable lonely person.
Yup, I am solely responsible for the miserable performance of the GERS common stock to date; I have accomplished this all by myself.
ReplyDeletestocks up 80 percent from start of year go back to school fool
ReplyDelete