It is always nice to get a third party's view on anything. Somebody without a cat in the fight. Here is some interesting estimates by Gary Roth the CEO of Syntroleum Corporation (SYNM) Q4 2011 Earnings Call March 7, 2012 11:00 AM ET
"We have received and processed shipments of inedible corn oil from ethanol plants. Approximately 40% of all ethanol plants have installed corn oil extraction technology and is expected that most ethanol plants will install this technology in the coming years creating a growing source of feedstock.
Our consultant to their National Biodiesel Board estimates that of [if] all dry mill corn ethanol plants installed corn oil extraction technology and [an] estimated 350 million to 375 million incremental gallons of inedible corn oil would be added to the supply chain annually."
SEE HERE
SkunK
40% of the industry extracting oil today is good to hear. Although I think it is already more than that. How much is under GreenShift license will be interesting to (eventually - lol) find out.
Lets see . . . 20% (2011 market share goal) of 350 million gallons is . . . 70M . . . Now take 20% (royalty) of Corn oil @ even $2.50 gallon - that's Annual GERS Revs of 35M? or about 8.75M/quarter? Plenty to be very profitable. But are the estimates too conservative???? Just one current customer - GPRE has projected annual corn oil sales (based on six months of full production) of 130M pounds. (oophs, corrrection made!)
Skunk, Thanks for the info. I really appreciate your blog. Sorry to have to correct you, but GPRE has stated that they have the capacity to produce 130 M pounds of corn oil, not gallons. If anyone knows the price/pound we could figure out how much the GERS royalty would be if GPRE went to full production.
ReplyDeleteI believe that the conversion is 7.67 pounds per gallon.
ReplyDeleteWell maybe nobody has been practicing on his math, well conversions. Hey its a start.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the correction. Blog readers - you are my proof reader and editor!
ReplyDeletelooks to me like they're referring to [what should be Greenshift's] year-over-year growth:
ReplyDelete+35m this year; +70m next year; +105 the year after that, ... in addition to current revenues.
WOW!
So why is similar action and performance taking place with GERS stock pps year after year. YAGI is a cancer for any company.
ReplyDeleteA reverse split occurs followed by a short spike in price and then a reduction in pps. Then this action is followed by issuance of more stock, thus diluting shares to fulfill a contract agreement that shareholders are not protected against, etc., etc., etc.
Incidentally it appears the same is happening with ADRN and GSEN. An announcement or a used car sales person pressure pitch to buy into some great new technology is issued. Shares sell into the billions and then a reverse split to make everyone think their stock is now more valuable and liquidity tradeable.
Occasionally there is a restructure of the business requiring new stock market symbols and name change so new players come in not knowing previous history and the cycle goes around again.
It only requires a perception of technology and worthiness to initiate new-commers into an already proven money making system.
CICS ran it's course and then was sold as a shell. Watch the pattern. There may be schemes involved here in the back-ground.
Yeah, all those COES are really card board cut outs like in a movie set. The ethanol industry is just star wars computer movie magic filmed against a green background and the Federal court of southern indiana is just old reruns of Judge Judy. Yaaawn . . .
ReplyDeleteGo peddle this magic dust stuff at Yahoo to the Yahoolagins
Anon! Thanks for taking time off from bagging fries to save me! You are my hero! Idiot
ReplyDeleteI don't know how you investment professionals may be accounting for GERS potential profits.
ReplyDeleteI own some of this stuff so i did a quick analysis based on the actual product made using public info and some very limited guesswork. My numbers are ranging from 2 to 10 million $/yr. I'm hoping long term near the higher end of that range. You need to know oil yield per gallon ethanol, market size and penetration, royalty rate, oil value.
Take a guess of oil value at 20-30 c/lb. No way it gets full fuel value or biodiesel value.
GERS will be sustainable very likely, and we'll keep wanting ethanol to oxygenate our gas so we don't breathe so much air pollution. If now this silly patent case would just close maybe I can make some money lol.
So Anon and Anon, you are saying GERS stock did not take reverse splits, approve additional share capacity and dilute the share price due to obligations to YAGI. Is that true and is there currently a dilution going on after the recent reverse split? What is the current number of outstanding shares versus after the recent reverse split? I will listen to your side of the equation.
ReplyDeleteRelationships with billion dollar corporations can be verified from those corporations own websites.
ReplyDeleteOne other thing to review is who are the only stockholders in GERS protected from stock dilution? The inventors of the technology already are recieving $0.10 per gallon of corn oil produced. Do I say KK, EC, DC, DW, GB, WD? Why would they really care about stock price other than it being a mining operation. KK could easily take this stock private at current valuation so why do they all not conpire to do that? Money, money, money!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteanonomous, good insight info. where do you find this. it appears from skunk's link that syntroleum and tyson can't even make a profit with rins, what if rins go away with new politics. many what-ifs here.
ReplyDeleteWhat can happen to stocks price if injunctions granted? 1 5 10$?
ReplyDeleteIf GreenShift has 20%-30% of the industry licensed than why do they have their TA gagged, continue to dilute, and not respond to investor inquiries regarding the OS??? There is no court order preventing GERS from keeping their investors informed. It just doesn't add up!
ReplyDeleteTry to guess the reason there has not been any shareholder communications. Is there a survey here? Is it because there is a major deal/financial restructuring going on. Whether it is simple refinancing, going private or merging is only illusional. However, after following this stock for a few years, there usually is not quiet unless a storm is coming. Get ready, set and go GERS followers. You will hear it first on the Skunk-GERS site. Have your funds deposited with your broker and place your bets on the price you may purchase or you may sell.
ReplyDeleteI say you will have 24-36 hours even after big news to respond. Couple thousand invested but less than 20 follow the stock closely. You will have at least a day after the news comes out to stock up before the news goes viral. The time lag is scary, you cannot believe your eyes. you will question yourself why it is not going up with the news. But if it is big it will go up - but you wil have a 24 hour window where you will just compete with the regulars
ReplyDeleteOne thing for sure... while patent lawsuits usually do only limited damage to defendents stock price (not that it matters here ICM is private) the plaintifs (GERS) are likely to come out ahead quickly - there's some nice journal articles on this effect. So a win could be a big deal, regardless of fun fundamentals.
ReplyDeleteI would like to see GERS win - they've got a lot of experience now in what NOT to do and also a good win. I bet they'll be ready to grow if it works out for them.
In regards to communications - If I was in the middle of a lawsuit that would make or break my company I would be very careful about public pronouncements right now as well.