The corn oil production and agribusiness segments generated $9.0 million and $7.8 million of operating income in the quarter, respectively. P.1
During 2011, Green Plains completed the installation of corn oil extraction equipment at its ethanol plants. The Company expects to produce approximately 130 million pounds of corn oil annually from its nine plants. P.1
Corn Oil Production Segment Green Plains initiated corn oil production in the fourth quarter of 2010. By September 30, 2011, corn oil extraction equipment was deployed at all nine of the Company’s ethanol plants. During the fourth quarter of 2011, the Company produced 31.9 million pounds of corn oil generating operating income of $9.0 million, compared to 5.0 million pounds and $0.9 million, respectively, for the fourth quarter of 2010. For the full year of 2011, the Company produced 96.3 million pounds of corn oil compared to 5.0 million pounds in 2010 period. P.5
Press Release HERE
SkunK
Looks like "mitoo" on I-Hub was the first to beat "meto" this one. HERE
GPRE is GreenShift's biggest known customer. Looks like corn oil production just held steady from the 3Q. Of course, Corn Oil Production is directly linked to ethanol production. I think they may have limited ethanol production in the 4Q although I cannot find a direct comparison of 3Q-4Q Ethanol Production yet. This quote hints at that:
“Since late in the year spot ethanol margins have compressed. We are maintaining our disciplined approach to managing commodity risks and are continually assessing production levels to optimize our operating performance".
Quote from the 3Q report here:
". . .the company produced 32.7 million pounds of corn oil and generated operating income of $9.6 million,"
So, assuming the 4Q is to December, 2011, and assuming that "operating income" means revenue net of GERS licence fee, I reckon that the $9m they earned in the quarter translates to $2.25m to GERS. With all their systems up and running, and assuming corn oil prices don't deteriorate, that sets an approximate revenue for GERS, just from GPRE of $9m per year. That number is probably higher - the facilities will have been gradually ramping up to full production during the qtr. The equivalent revenue from GPRE in my cash flow projections (annually) is $10.8m, assuming a price of $3 for corn oil, so it's in the ball park.
ReplyDeleteThe $9 million is my estimate too. A little extrapolation (GPRE represents about a third of the ethanol production currently under license -- correct?)to $27 million a year in revenue for GERS annually from just COES. That is $1.5 per share in revenue. This is more fuel for this rocket ship (USS GERS), but I again caution that we need to remove the tethers (litigation closure and/or debt restructured) before this ship can leave the launching pad. But, we do keep adding fuel to this venture.
ReplyDeleteHey sKunK. Anyway we can perform another poll for the Q4 Revs? I think that was hit for the Q3. Thank in advance if possible!
ReplyDeleteThe 9 million is your estimate after the numbers been released? Gee what do you know it's 9 million you really nailed it there.
ReplyDeleteNo that's wrong. 9 is profit. Revenue was 14,508 thousands.
ReplyDeleteA different analysis, based on the GPRE data (yesterday) and data provided by Slash several months ago and the recent update by Skribe led to these figures. There is nothing that I claim primacy for, but the approach was different and led to the same conclusion as Neil's. Two different approaches leading to similar estimates increases one's sense of the robustness of the estimate.
ReplyDeleteAnonymous,
ReplyDeleteWhoever you are, you need to pay a bit more attention to detail. The number released is for GPRE and I'm using that to estimate the corresponding qtrly and annual revenue for GERS. Seriously, if you want to have any success in investing, or have people respect your comments you need to think before you speak.
Or perhaps you're just here as a distraction to try to shut down rational discussion?
Neil/Nobody that's fine but pay attention to details and you'll get the numbers right. It's 14 1/2 not 9. 9 is a distortion of the truth.
ReplyDeletePlease lay out the data that supports your contention.
ReplyDeletenobody12378,
ReplyDeleteI'm glad you're wrong, because this means more money for GERS. The numbers are on the bottom of page 4.
Revenue:
14,508,000
Gross Profit:
8,969,000
Operating Income:
8,958,000
You are right I was working off this last night and had to make a number of assumptions:
ReplyDelete"During 2011, Green Plains completed the installation of corn oil extraction equipment at its ethanol plants. The Company expects to produce approximately 130 million pounds of corn oil annually from its nine plants"
Using the data from the filing (always a better idea) the number is closer to $11.6 million a year.
Anonymous,
ReplyDeletethere you go again with the rush to judgement. I have no interest or incentive to "distort the truth". I used the numbers that I thought were right. If they're wrong then you've corrected me, thanks. See how collaboration works....
Seriously, if you want to have any success in investing, or have people respect your comments you need to think before you speak.
ReplyDeleteWhoever you are, you need to pay a bit more attention to detail. Or perhaps you're just here as a distraction to try to shut down rational discussion?
See how collaboration works....