It looks like we finally got a close outside the 4c to 5c trading range that we have had the last 16 trading days. Going up we saw resistance at 6 and 7 cents: Thus our failure to close above 5.5 nor trade above 6 during our recent run up off our lows. We just saw the highest volume in 13 days. Our technical bot sees two levels of support if we are making a swing down: support1: 0.0285 Support2: 0.0090. If we are moving down to test our lows we may stop at one and/or the other. We are presently at 3.8 so if yesterday was not just a holiday aberration, we could drop a penny here before we see support. Hopefully we will stay above that 2.5-2.85 level, confirm that as a test of our previous low and start our build. If we see some significant dilution at this point it is not impossible that we could actually go down and bounce off either the .009 support or the .0062 all time low. I have always found that it is best to decide before hand what you plan to do in the case of a probable scenario - write it down if you have to. I have 30 day buy and sell limit orders in for my GERS trading post. That way (in the absence of any new confirmed information) you are less apt to decide based on fear or greed as the stock moves about. Very few people actually PLAN to sell low and buy high - but most people do. Yes, you CAN roller skate in a buffalo herd - regardless of what the bison say. lol
Friday is a half day. Expect low volume and high volatility overall. NOT a good day to place a market order. (Is there ever a good day for that?)
http://www.allotcbb.com/quote.php?symbol=GERS.OB
***********
Shorts Revisited
Well it looks like our short shares outstanding fell from 167K to a more historical 4K. I have to believe that there are only a few people shorting this stock. However, since their is always stock short - it is obvious that at least one person is shorting this stock. To deny this is quite silly. But the more important question: Is it significant? The SkunK thinks that the 30 October report with 167K, if held in a single traders hands, is significant. If a naked short is forced to cover 167K on a single day, when we have few sellers - we could see a significant spike. Look at our chart. You see significant spikes in mid December, mid Feburary, and smaller spikes sprinkled about. They were caused by high demand and low supply. But what caused the high demand? Covering shorts is one possibility -but only one among many. The actual physical act of shorting has not driven this stock down consistantly over the last couple years.
What do you mean SkunK?
Shareholders have a vested interest in this stock rising. I am a shareholder. Therefore I have a vested interest in this stock rising. (See my disclaimer below).
Those who short this stock have a vested interest in this stock falling. They are few and far between but they do exist. They do not post a disclaimer.
SkunK.
http://www.shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=gers&submit=Short+Quote%99
Thursday, November 27, 2008
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
3Q Comments. Unobstructed View
3Q Total Revenues $6,088,754
(Only 83% of what SkunK expected, although this makes $24,126,662 for the year so far. That makes us on a pace to hit +$32M in total revenues. The significance of that is last year we came in just under 30M with over half from the sales of environmental services. We have shed that part of the business, reduced debt and managed to replace that part of the revenue stream without missing a beat. We are tight on cash, but we are headed into the 4th quarter and still in the game.
I could of got a pretty good line six months ago if I had bet that by years end Verasun would be bankrupt and Greenshift would be still in the hunt. A whole lot of smart people would have taken my bet at 20-1 and lost.
We sold our 10% share of Sterling Planet for 1M cash. Yagi sold some shares and we have some debt waived. I see we may be selling some Cleantech Preferred shares soon. If you haven't noticed this is the hardest credit crunch we have had in at least 70 years. But so far we have found a way when others have not. Will Greenshift be part of the Billions being spent on new energy technologies in the next administration? Will we find a way to stay afloat until we get to that 8th COES and profitability? Like always - its your call. If you haven't noticed - I'm still here.
Total Corn Oil produced 461,282 [About 65% of what SkunK expected and was about 45% of SkunK's estimated capacity. This needs to improve - and the SkunK expects they will as these new extractors are tweaked on line]
Biodiesel produced (gallons) 511,935 [as expected due to feedstock price - little waste grease biodiesel produced, mostly just the 461,282 gallons of corn oil above.]
Average gross price of biodiesel sold per gallon $4.55 [Excellent Price here. I estimate it must have been close to 50 cent premium to standard diesel price.]
*********
The number of outstanding shares of common stock as of November 19, 2008 was 89,809,764. [Looks like YAGI may have sold about 7M shares into the market by converting debentures. The Average shares/month from July, August and September was 3.5M. October was 13.5M. Looking back at the volumes it seems likely that the sales started on the 6th of October and finished up strong with over 3M shares traded on the 31st. Even with all those shares sold we finished up 20% for the month of October. If we continue on this placid November pace we are set for a slightly lower than average volume of under 2.9M shares trading hands. The SkunK thinks we have had no Yagi or other diluting sales in November.
Gers common shares were 82,751,515 as of Aug 19, 2008.
*********
"We currently own and operate six production facilities - four corn oil extraction facilities based on our patented and patent-pending corn oil extraction technologies, one biodiesel production facility based on our patent-pending biodiesel production technologies, and one vegetable oil seed crushing facility based on conventional process technology." [Here is another confirmation #4 Riga Michigan up and running!]
*********
[Due to commodity price changes we now get $1.00 operating income from a gallon of corn oil. It was $1.40 in the 2Q. Therefore the number of COES needed to turn a profit went from 7 to 8.]
". . . profitability at current market prices will require us to successfully commission eight corn oil extraction facilities."
********
Among our current and known sources of operating cash flows are our four existing corn oil extraction facilities and our biodiesel facility in Adrian, Michigan. Notwithstanding any contributions to our cash flows from our equipment or culinary oil sales, or from refining and selling conventional waste fat derived biodiesel, refining the oil extracted by five extraction facilities into biodiesel is expected to provide sufficient cash to cover all of our regular debt service and operational needs for the foreseeable future.
[Definite signal here we need that December COES to help with cash flow. ]
********
Oshkosh, Wisconsin Corn Oil Extraction capacity has been changed to 1.3 million gallons per year. SkunK's capacity was figured using 1.5mmgy for Oshkosh.
*******
Check out the Miller Agreement (Dr. Paul T. Miller, Ph.D., Chief Executive Officer, Sustainable Systems):
"In November 2008, the Company and Miller entered a restructuring agreement (the"Miller Restructuring Agreement") pursuant to which Miller waived all amounts due to him pursuant to the Miller Purchase Agreement totalling 44,511,134 [*See SkunK note below] including accrued interest. The Miller Restructuring Agreement also included a term that called for the Company and Miller to use their respective best efforts to restructure GS AgriFuels' March 26, 2007 purchase agreements with the former unaffiliated minority shareholders of Sustainable Systems, Inc., on an equitable basis to facilitate a return on their respective investments out of the cash flows of Sustainable's Culbertson, Montana oilseed crush plant after its expansion has been completed."
What does this mean? I have been told by another investor that Dr. Paul Miller is qualified to play George Bailey in real life. In my book, that's a compliment. He got Sustainable started and has been with it ever since. He believes in what he is doing and knows Sustainable is good for everyone in the area. It appears he is not going to let a little money get in the way. No matter how many times I read the above paragraph it says George . . . ah, I mean Paul Miller waives $44.5M* in exchange for?? . . . . nothing?? Well actually he and the company promise to work to restructure the money owned to other former shareholders so that they can share in the profits of a expanded company in lieu of present payments due? The SkunK can only imagine he waived this in order to reduce the debt on Sustainable books to improve the debt ratio to allow for future financing.
(Only 83% of what SkunK expected, although this makes $24,126,662 for the year so far. That makes us on a pace to hit +$32M in total revenues. The significance of that is last year we came in just under 30M with over half from the sales of environmental services. We have shed that part of the business, reduced debt and managed to replace that part of the revenue stream without missing a beat. We are tight on cash, but we are headed into the 4th quarter and still in the game.
I could of got a pretty good line six months ago if I had bet that by years end Verasun would be bankrupt and Greenshift would be still in the hunt. A whole lot of smart people would have taken my bet at 20-1 and lost.
We sold our 10% share of Sterling Planet for 1M cash. Yagi sold some shares and we have some debt waived. I see we may be selling some Cleantech Preferred shares soon. If you haven't noticed this is the hardest credit crunch we have had in at least 70 years. But so far we have found a way when others have not. Will Greenshift be part of the Billions being spent on new energy technologies in the next administration? Will we find a way to stay afloat until we get to that 8th COES and profitability? Like always - its your call. If you haven't noticed - I'm still here.
Total Corn Oil produced 461,282 [About 65% of what SkunK expected and was about 45% of SkunK's estimated capacity. This needs to improve - and the SkunK expects they will as these new extractors are tweaked on line]
Biodiesel produced (gallons) 511,935 [as expected due to feedstock price - little waste grease biodiesel produced, mostly just the 461,282 gallons of corn oil above.]
Average gross price of biodiesel sold per gallon $4.55 [Excellent Price here. I estimate it must have been close to 50 cent premium to standard diesel price.]
*********
The number of outstanding shares of common stock as of November 19, 2008 was 89,809,764. [Looks like YAGI may have sold about 7M shares into the market by converting debentures. The Average shares/month from July, August and September was 3.5M. October was 13.5M. Looking back at the volumes it seems likely that the sales started on the 6th of October and finished up strong with over 3M shares traded on the 31st. Even with all those shares sold we finished up 20% for the month of October. If we continue on this placid November pace we are set for a slightly lower than average volume of under 2.9M shares trading hands. The SkunK thinks we have had no Yagi or other diluting sales in November.
Gers common shares were 82,751,515 as of Aug 19, 2008.
*********
"We currently own and operate six production facilities - four corn oil extraction facilities based on our patented and patent-pending corn oil extraction technologies, one biodiesel production facility based on our patent-pending biodiesel production technologies, and one vegetable oil seed crushing facility based on conventional process technology." [Here is another confirmation #4 Riga Michigan up and running!]
*********
[Due to commodity price changes we now get $1.00 operating income from a gallon of corn oil. It was $1.40 in the 2Q. Therefore the number of COES needed to turn a profit went from 7 to 8.]
". . . profitability at current market prices will require us to successfully commission eight corn oil extraction facilities."
********
Among our current and known sources of operating cash flows are our four existing corn oil extraction facilities and our biodiesel facility in Adrian, Michigan. Notwithstanding any contributions to our cash flows from our equipment or culinary oil sales, or from refining and selling conventional waste fat derived biodiesel, refining the oil extracted by five extraction facilities into biodiesel is expected to provide sufficient cash to cover all of our regular debt service and operational needs for the foreseeable future.
[Definite signal here we need that December COES to help with cash flow. ]
********
Oshkosh, Wisconsin Corn Oil Extraction capacity has been changed to 1.3 million gallons per year. SkunK's capacity was figured using 1.5mmgy for Oshkosh.
*******
Check out the Miller Agreement (Dr. Paul T. Miller, Ph.D., Chief Executive Officer, Sustainable Systems):
"In November 2008, the Company and Miller entered a restructuring agreement (the"Miller Restructuring Agreement") pursuant to which Miller waived all amounts due to him pursuant to the Miller Purchase Agreement totalling 44,511,134 [*See SkunK note below] including accrued interest. The Miller Restructuring Agreement also included a term that called for the Company and Miller to use their respective best efforts to restructure GS AgriFuels' March 26, 2007 purchase agreements with the former unaffiliated minority shareholders of Sustainable Systems, Inc., on an equitable basis to facilitate a return on their respective investments out of the cash flows of Sustainable's Culbertson, Montana oilseed crush plant after its expansion has been completed."
What does this mean? I have been told by another investor that Dr. Paul Miller is qualified to play George Bailey in real life. In my book, that's a compliment. He got Sustainable started and has been with it ever since. He believes in what he is doing and knows Sustainable is good for everyone in the area. It appears he is not going to let a little money get in the way. No matter how many times I read the above paragraph it says George . . . ah, I mean Paul Miller waives $44.5M* in exchange for?? . . . . nothing?? Well actually he and the company promise to work to restructure the money owned to other former shareholders so that they can share in the profits of a expanded company in lieu of present payments due? The SkunK can only imagine he waived this in order to reduce the debt on Sustainable books to improve the debt ratio to allow for future financing.
*SkunK Note: The SkunK has to also believe that the debt waived is NOT 44.5M. It has to be an extra 4 typo. Notice the $ symbol is located above the number 4. Looks like someone forgot to hit the shift key when they typed 44,511,134. I think it should have been $4,511,134, which is about right when you figure what he was owed with interest.
On March 26, 2007, GS AgriFuels entered into an agreement to purchase certaincapital stock of Sustainable Systems, Inc. from Paul Miller, a foundingshareholder of Sustainable (the "Miller Purchase Agreement"). The MillerPurchase Agreement called for $46,448 to be paid at closing, a note forapproximately $882,000 and two $1.6 million debentures, totaling $4,228,729.
********
Sale of Sterling Planet?
(GERS had a 10% minority interest) On September 10, 2008, the Company entered into Stock Purchase Agreement with Sterling Planet Holdings, Inc. ("Sterling Planet"). Under the Stock Purchase Agreement, the Company agreed to sell the 1,459,854 shares of Sterling Planet which encompassed the 10% investment the Company had in Sterling Planet. The total sale price for the stock was $1,000,000. [Looking back The SkunK should have seen this coming. Sure it would have been great to hold this if Washington really goes green. But Sterling planet was kind of like a healthy appendix, you don't mind having it around - but if you have to donate an organ while you are still alive - take my Appendix!]
*******
Note: Months to completion after financing is the only change here and there is only one reason for that. In Montana country it is too damn cold to cure cement in the winter time. Sure you can do it. But you basically have to build a temporary enclosure around the pour and heat it. If cement freezes before it cures it will be worthless. It will crumble. Going from six to nine months for completion means the footings have not been poured yet, and they will not be poured - even if we got the loan today - until the spring.
From the 2Q
The expansion can be expected to be completed within approximately six months after the successful completion of a cost-effective financing for this project.
From the 3Q
The expansion can be expected to be completed within approximately nine months after the successful completion of a cost-effective financing for this project.
*******
CONVERTIBLE NOTES
On September 4, 2008, the Company's subsidiary, GS CleanTech Corporation, entered into a series of convertible notes totaling $1,734,579. The notes shall bear interest at a rate 15% per annum and mature on December 31, 2010. On February 1, 2009, payments are due at a rate equal to the greater of the interest accrued on the unpaid principal or $100,000 times the principal amount divided by $3,000,000. Beginning July 1, 2009, payments are due based on an eighteen month amortization, with all principal and accrued interest paid on or before December 31, 2010. The notes are convertible into shares of GS CleanTech subsidiary preferred stock (par $0.001) at the closing by GS CleanTech of a planned Preferred Stock Financing at a 15% discount to the final terms of any such Preferred Stock Financing. If any portion of the note is prepaid in cash, GS CleanTech shall pay a 10% redemption premium at the time of redemption. If the Preferred Stock Financing does not close on or before January 1, 2009, the interest and redemption premium will increase to 20%. The balance of the loans was $1,734,579 as of September 30, 2008.
(Preferred Stock Financing?? What does that mean? It looks like we sold some notes for 1.7M and that debt cannot be converted into common shares. Instead it can be converted into shares of GS Clean Tech preferred Stock? And we plan to do a preferred Stock Financing? Are we gonna do an IPO of Preferred Stock? To the public? Or just to YAGI? Or just to some other deep pocket investors?
ITEM 3 DEFAULTS UPON SENIOR SECURITIES: None.
(Good)
********
Sale of Sterling Planet?
(GERS had a 10% minority interest) On September 10, 2008, the Company entered into Stock Purchase Agreement with Sterling Planet Holdings, Inc. ("Sterling Planet"). Under the Stock Purchase Agreement, the Company agreed to sell the 1,459,854 shares of Sterling Planet which encompassed the 10% investment the Company had in Sterling Planet. The total sale price for the stock was $1,000,000. [Looking back The SkunK should have seen this coming. Sure it would have been great to hold this if Washington really goes green. But Sterling planet was kind of like a healthy appendix, you don't mind having it around - but if you have to donate an organ while you are still alive - take my Appendix!]
*******
Note: Months to completion after financing is the only change here and there is only one reason for that. In Montana country it is too damn cold to cure cement in the winter time. Sure you can do it. But you basically have to build a temporary enclosure around the pour and heat it. If cement freezes before it cures it will be worthless. It will crumble. Going from six to nine months for completion means the footings have not been poured yet, and they will not be poured - even if we got the loan today - until the spring.
From the 2Q
The expansion can be expected to be completed within approximately six months after the successful completion of a cost-effective financing for this project.
From the 3Q
The expansion can be expected to be completed within approximately nine months after the successful completion of a cost-effective financing for this project.
*******
CONVERTIBLE NOTES
On September 4, 2008, the Company's subsidiary, GS CleanTech Corporation, entered into a series of convertible notes totaling $1,734,579. The notes shall bear interest at a rate 15% per annum and mature on December 31, 2010. On February 1, 2009, payments are due at a rate equal to the greater of the interest accrued on the unpaid principal or $100,000 times the principal amount divided by $3,000,000. Beginning July 1, 2009, payments are due based on an eighteen month amortization, with all principal and accrued interest paid on or before December 31, 2010. The notes are convertible into shares of GS CleanTech subsidiary preferred stock (par $0.001) at the closing by GS CleanTech of a planned Preferred Stock Financing at a 15% discount to the final terms of any such Preferred Stock Financing. If any portion of the note is prepaid in cash, GS CleanTech shall pay a 10% redemption premium at the time of redemption. If the Preferred Stock Financing does not close on or before January 1, 2009, the interest and redemption premium will increase to 20%. The balance of the loans was $1,734,579 as of September 30, 2008.
(Preferred Stock Financing?? What does that mean? It looks like we sold some notes for 1.7M and that debt cannot be converted into common shares. Instead it can be converted into shares of GS Clean Tech preferred Stock? And we plan to do a preferred Stock Financing? Are we gonna do an IPO of Preferred Stock? To the public? Or just to YAGI? Or just to some other deep pocket investors?
ITEM 3 DEFAULTS UPON SENIOR SECURITIES: None.
(Good)
New COES Schedule and more to come.
SkunK
SkunK
Friday, November 21, 2008
Fulton Ethanol UPDATE
Fulton, N.Y. Biofuels Plant Nearing Full Production
"The wait may finally be over for us to be able to put Fulton-produced ethanol into our cars -- assuming your car can run on it," according to WSYR Television in Syracuse, N.Y. The Northeast Biofuels ethanol plant is still not up to full capacity, but the plant is operating at 75 percent and has produced about five million gallons of ethanol since mid-August, WSYR said. " 'As we continue through the test, we identify things that need to be tweaked, changed or improved upon to ensure -- when complete with the testing -- the plant will deliver what it is we paid for to be delivered,' says Brian Roach of Northeast Biofuels. After a maintenance shut down, the company is ready to get the operation fired up again by the end of the week."(WSYR Television, Nov. 19, 2008)
http://www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com/dtnag/common/link.do?symbolicName=/ag/blogs/template1&blogHandle=inothermedia&blogEntryId=8a82c0bc1d7428dc011dbbb0433502fe
Thanks to Hapitomcat for the update,
SkunK
More on our Partners in Fulton - Now get that biodiesel pump working!
Fulton Fastrac to sell e85
Fulton, NY - November 20, 2008: When the newly expanded and renovated Fastrac Market on 131 South 2nd Street (at the intersection of NYS Rte 3 and NYS Rte 481) in Fulton reopens on Friday it will feature Oswego County’s first e85 pump with the ethanol supplied by the Northeast Biofuels (NEB) plant in neighboring Volney.
“Over the summer, Fastrac Markets was proud to purchase the first ethanol produced at Northeast Biofuels to blend as e10 for sale at our stations throughout Upstate,” said Fastrac President Thomas Waddle. “And now we are just as proud to sell NEB ethanol as part of an e85 blend at our newly expanded service station in Fulton.”
Waddle explained all vehicles can run on gasoline with a 10 percent ethanol blend (e10), while only vehicles designated by the manufacturer as Flex Fuel Vehicles (FFVs) can run on fuel blended with 85 percent ethanol and 15 percent gasoline (e85).
E85 is usually priced cheaper than regular gasoline and burns far more cleanly than regular gasoline. “From the standpoint of both the consumer and the environment, e85 is a real win-win,” Waddle added.
NEB General Manager Brian Roach said the opening of the e85 pump in Fulton is another major step in the ramp up of the state’s biofuels industry and emphasized the importance of marketing ethanol through local retailers like Fastrac.
“NEB has made a commitment to do business with local suppliers and having a forward looking fuel retailer like Fastrac as a customer and partner will help us to do just that,” Roach added. “For NEB to be a success, we need to be able to market our ethanol as close to home as possible.”
In addition to the Fulton location, Fastrac has four other locations in Oswego County and a total 45 stations across Central and Western New York. The 1st e85 pump for the company was a part of the new location recently opened this past summer in the Town of Henrietta in the Rochester market. Headquartered in Dewitt, the company employs over 250 full time workers.
http://www.permolex.com/view.asp?ID=54
"The wait may finally be over for us to be able to put Fulton-produced ethanol into our cars -- assuming your car can run on it," according to WSYR Television in Syracuse, N.Y. The Northeast Biofuels ethanol plant is still not up to full capacity, but the plant is operating at 75 percent and has produced about five million gallons of ethanol since mid-August, WSYR said. " 'As we continue through the test, we identify things that need to be tweaked, changed or improved upon to ensure -- when complete with the testing -- the plant will deliver what it is we paid for to be delivered,' says Brian Roach of Northeast Biofuels. After a maintenance shut down, the company is ready to get the operation fired up again by the end of the week."(WSYR Television, Nov. 19, 2008)
http://www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com/dtnag/common/link.do?symbolicName=/ag/blogs/template1&blogHandle=inothermedia&blogEntryId=8a82c0bc1d7428dc011dbbb0433502fe
Thanks to Hapitomcat for the update,
SkunK
More on our Partners in Fulton - Now get that biodiesel pump working!
Fulton Fastrac to sell e85
Fulton, NY - November 20, 2008: When the newly expanded and renovated Fastrac Market on 131 South 2nd Street (at the intersection of NYS Rte 3 and NYS Rte 481) in Fulton reopens on Friday it will feature Oswego County’s first e85 pump with the ethanol supplied by the Northeast Biofuels (NEB) plant in neighboring Volney.
“Over the summer, Fastrac Markets was proud to purchase the first ethanol produced at Northeast Biofuels to blend as e10 for sale at our stations throughout Upstate,” said Fastrac President Thomas Waddle. “And now we are just as proud to sell NEB ethanol as part of an e85 blend at our newly expanded service station in Fulton.”
Waddle explained all vehicles can run on gasoline with a 10 percent ethanol blend (e10), while only vehicles designated by the manufacturer as Flex Fuel Vehicles (FFVs) can run on fuel blended with 85 percent ethanol and 15 percent gasoline (e85).
E85 is usually priced cheaper than regular gasoline and burns far more cleanly than regular gasoline. “From the standpoint of both the consumer and the environment, e85 is a real win-win,” Waddle added.
NEB General Manager Brian Roach said the opening of the e85 pump in Fulton is another major step in the ramp up of the state’s biofuels industry and emphasized the importance of marketing ethanol through local retailers like Fastrac.
“NEB has made a commitment to do business with local suppliers and having a forward looking fuel retailer like Fastrac as a customer and partner will help us to do just that,” Roach added. “For NEB to be a success, we need to be able to market our ethanol as close to home as possible.”
In addition to the Fulton location, Fastrac has four other locations in Oswego County and a total 45 stations across Central and Western New York. The 1st e85 pump for the company was a part of the new location recently opened this past summer in the Town of Henrietta in the Rochester market. Headquartered in Dewitt, the company employs over 250 full time workers.
http://www.permolex.com/view.asp?ID=54
Thursday, November 20, 2008
NEW 3Q/A is now out!
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1269127/000126912708000169/gersq308-2.txt
The 3Q was refiled TODAY to correct minor typographical errors. So do you what to know what they were? Save both the 3Q and the 3Qa to your desktop. Open up the 3Q. Go to Tools. Go to compare and merge. Next you open the 3Qa into the merge. It will show you all the changes. What I found were mostly typo stuff. Headings, how a date is formatted at the top of a column, that kind of stuff. The Ebitda on page 28, 29, 30 was increased changed from 1,096,289 to $1,104,518. Also the '07 Ebitda was changed from 965,121 to 710,711. On page 29 we also made a concession to you city slickers by changing "available animal fat" to "available feedstocks" - lol. In any case you can see below what other numbers changed below. I may have missed something, hopefully I got it all straight - but that's why I also gave you the instructions on how to check it yourself. All the conspiracy fans out there - have a field day. lol
*******
Also changed on page 30:
3Qa Other non-GAAP financial performance data:EBITDA
$ (1,524,175) $ 4,429,583 $ 1,104,518 $ (710,711)
*******
On page 33:
From 3Q
Profitability
After accounting for the non-recurring loss realized on disposal of the
Company's investment in Sterling Planet, our Other Income (Expense) for the
three months ended September 30, 2008 was about $2,648,000, or about $10,592,000
on an annualized basis. Most of this amount is attributable to recurring
non-cash items such as amortization (about $6,270,000 per year) and interest
accruals (about $19,650 per year), and about $1,381,108 per year corresponds to
interest payable on an ongoing current basis in cash.
to
3Qa
Profitability
After accounting for the non-recurring loss realized on disposal of the
Company's investment in Sterling Planet, our Other Income (Expense) for the
three months ended September 30, 2008 was about $2,648,000, or about $10,592,000 on an annualized basis. Most of this amount is attributable to recurring non-cash items such as amortization (about $6,270,000 per year) and interest accruals (about $4,360,000 per year on an annualized basis), and about $460,000 per year corresponds to interest paid on an ongoing annualized basis in cash.
SkunK
The 3Q was refiled TODAY to correct minor typographical errors. So do you what to know what they were? Save both the 3Q and the 3Qa to your desktop. Open up the 3Q. Go to Tools. Go to compare and merge. Next you open the 3Qa into the merge. It will show you all the changes. What I found were mostly typo stuff. Headings, how a date is formatted at the top of a column, that kind of stuff. The Ebitda on page 28, 29, 30 was increased changed from 1,096,289 to $1,104,518. Also the '07 Ebitda was changed from 965,121 to 710,711. On page 29 we also made a concession to you city slickers by changing "available animal fat" to "available feedstocks" - lol. In any case you can see below what other numbers changed below. I may have missed something, hopefully I got it all straight - but that's why I also gave you the instructions on how to check it yourself. All the conspiracy fans out there - have a field day. lol
*******
Also changed on page 30:
3Q: Other non-GAAP financial performance data:EBITDA
$(1,532,404) $ 4,175,173$ 1,096,289 $ (965,121)
to
3Qa Other non-GAAP financial performance data:EBITDA
$ (1,524,175) $ 4,429,583 $ 1,104,518 $ (710,711)
*******
On page 33:
From 3Q
Profitability
After accounting for the non-recurring loss realized on disposal of the
Company's investment in Sterling Planet, our Other Income (Expense) for the
three months ended September 30, 2008 was about $2,648,000, or about $10,592,000
on an annualized basis. Most of this amount is attributable to recurring
non-cash items such as amortization (about $6,270,000 per year) and interest
accruals (about $19,650 per year), and about $1,381,108 per year corresponds to
interest payable on an ongoing current basis in cash.
to
3Qa
Profitability
After accounting for the non-recurring loss realized on disposal of the
Company's investment in Sterling Planet, our Other Income (Expense) for the
three months ended September 30, 2008 was about $2,648,000, or about $10,592,000 on an annualized basis. Most of this amount is attributable to recurring non-cash items such as amortization (about $6,270,000 per year) and interest accruals (about $4,360,000 per year on an annualized basis), and about $460,000 per year corresponds to interest paid on an ongoing annualized basis in cash.
SkunK
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
3Q is OUT!! Updated 1628ET 20 Nov
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1269127/000126912708000167/gersq308.txt
3Q Total Revenues $6,088,754
Total Corn Oil produced 461,282
Biodiesel produced (gallons) 511,935
Average gross price of biodiesel sold per gallon $4.55
*********
The number of outstanding shares of common stock as of November 19, 2008 was 89,809,764. 82,751,515 as of Aug 19, 2008.
*********
"We currently own and operate six production facilities - four corn oil extraction facilities based on our patented and patent-pending corn oil extraction technologies, one biodiesel production facility based on our patent-pending biodiesel production technologies, and one vegetable oil seed crushing facility based on conventional process technology."
Will update this blog as I get through the 3Q.
SkunK
3Q Total Revenues $6,088,754
Total Corn Oil produced 461,282
Biodiesel produced (gallons) 511,935
Average gross price of biodiesel sold per gallon $4.55
*********
The number of outstanding shares of common stock as of November 19, 2008 was 89,809,764. 82,751,515 as of Aug 19, 2008.
*********
"We currently own and operate six production facilities - four corn oil extraction facilities based on our patented and patent-pending corn oil extraction technologies, one biodiesel production facility based on our patent-pending biodiesel production technologies, and one vegetable oil seed crushing facility based on conventional process technology."
********
"Achieving break-even profitability at current market prices will require us to successfully commission eight corn oil extraction facilities."
********
Among our current and known sources of operating cash flows are our four existing corn oil extraction facilities and our biodiesel facility in Adrian, Michigan. Notwithstanding any contributions to our cash flows from our equipment or culinary oil sales, or from refining and selling conventional waste fat derived biodiesel, refining the oil extracted by five extraction facilities into biodiesel is expected to provide sufficient cash to cover all of our regular debt service and operational needs for the foreseeable future.
********
3Q Total Corn Oil produced: 461,282
713,125 gallons (SkunK Estimated)
1,031,250 gallons capacity (SkunK Estimated)
Actual Production was 45% of SkunK's Estimated Capacity.
That is up from the previous two quarters:
1Q 08: 26% 152,787 gallons of corn oil
2Q 08: 40% 296,727 gallons of corn oil
3Q 08: 45% 461,282 gallons of corn oil
Also note Oshkosh, Wisconsin Corn Oil Extraction capacity has been changed to 1.3 million gallons per year. SkunK's capacity was figured using 1.5mmgy for Oshkosh.
*******
Check out the Miller Agreement (Dr. Paul T. Miller, Ph.D., Chief Executive Officer, Sustainable Systems):
In November 2008, the Company and Miller entered a restructuring agreement (the"Miller Restructuring Agreement") pursuant to which Miller waived all amounts due to him pursuant to the Miller Purchase Agreement totalling 44,511,134 including accrued interest. The Miller Restructuring Agreement also included a term that called for the Company and Miller to use their respective best efforts to restructure GS AgriFuels' March 26, 2007 purchase agreements with the former unaffiliated minority shareholders of Sustainable Systems, Inc., on an equitable basis to facilitate a return on their respective investments out of the cash flows of Sustainable's Culbertson, Montana oilseed crush plant after its expansion has been completed.
********
Sale of Sterling Planet? (GERS had a 10% minority interest)
On September 10, 2008, the Company entered into Stock Purchase Agreement with Sterling Planet Holdings, Inc. ("Sterling Planet"). Under the Stock Purchase Agreement, the Company agreed to sell the 1,459,854 shares of Sterling Planet which encompassed the 10% investment the Company had in Sterling Planet.
The total sale price for the stock was $1,000,000.
*******
Note: Months to completion after financing is the only change here:
From the 2Q
We are currently awaiting final approval of a government-backed loan guaranty for the financing we have sourced for the completion of the expansion. While there can be no assurances in this regard, we expect to receive this approval this year. The expansion can be expected to be completed within approximately six months after the successful completion of a cost-effective financing for this project.
From the 3Q
We are currently awaiting final approval of a government-backed loan guaranty for the financing we have sourced for the completion of the expansion. While there can be no assurances in this regard, we expect to receive this approval this year. The expansion can be expected to be completed within approximately nine months after the successful completion of a cost-effective financing for this project.
*******
CONVERTIBLE NOTES
On September 4, 2008, the Company's subsidiary, GS CleanTech Corporation, entered into a series of convertible notes totaling $1,734,579. The notes shall bear interest at a rate 15% per annum and mature on December 31, 2010. On February 1, 2009, payments are due at a rate equal to the greater of the interest accrued on the unpaid principal or $100,000 times the principal amount divided by $3,000,000. Beginning July 1, 2009, payments are due based on an eighteen month amortization, with all principal and accrued interest paid on or before December 31, 2010. The notes are convertible into shares of GS CleanTech subsidiary preferred stock (par $0.001) at the closing by GS CleanTech of a planned Preferred Stock Financing at a 15% discount to the final terms of any such Preferred Stock Financing. If any portion of the note is prepaid in cash, GS CleanTech shall pay a 10% redemption premium at the time of redemption. If the Preferred Stock Financing does not close on or before January 1, 2009, the interest and redemption premium will increase to 20%. The balance of the loans was $1,734,579 as of September 30, 2008.
ITEM 3 DEFAULTS UPON SENIOR SECURITIES: None.
Will update this blog as I get through the 3Q.
SkunK
UP or Down - Going somewhere fast???
On my blog on the 12th I said this:1. On the feathered arrow, note the bottom Bollinger band (which has been off the bottom of the chart for a month), notice how it just peaked its head out yesterday and it is going north fast today. This significant contraction in the Bollinger bands is a sign of volatility and the SkunK believes it has been a reliable predictor of such - in this stock - in the past. I suspect this in itself means we will see some significant movement either up or down in the next five trading days.
Look here for a bot's opinion. "The current width of the bands does not suggest anything about the future direction or movement of prices." I suspect this computer generated opinion will catch up to the SkunK in a day or two. John Henry did win the race, didn't he??
***********
Well I think we are now gonna see some of that volitiality the SkunK promised.
Notice how the feathered arrow now points to a much closer gap in the Bollinger Bands. Also note that the other arrow points to how the 20 day moving average is poised to move through the trading area. The gap between the 50 and 200 day MA is closing to 4.9. We may see some big movement after the release - one way or the other - or at least very soon. These things are not fool proof - but it is what it is.
Good Luck, SkunK
Biodiesel Competition
Granted, the SkunK spends time talking about the COES. He does not talk as much about the biodiesel portion of the business. Without our ability to value increase the raw corn oil into the unlimited biodiesel market, the COES would be just a neat parlor trick. Lets go over a few biodiesel competitors and what difficulties some (who do not have our equipment) are facing.
Competitors - There are approximately 20 companies that manufacture components, systems, and/or equipment to produce biodiesel.
Modular Systems
There are a few companies that advertise themselves as offering modular Biodiesel production systems. These include Greenline Industries, Greenshift, Inc., Epic Modular Process Systems; FORE Energy; and Xenerga. We believe we can deliver the same capacity with a much better value proposition including lower capital investment, accelerated time to market, and reduced operating expenses.
Turn-key Systems
Companies offering turn-key Biodiesel production systems include Axens North America; BioKing; Extreme Biodiesel; GS Clean Tech Corporation; Jatrodiesel, Inc; JetBio; MH Equipment Co; Midland Manufacturing; Murphy International Development, LLC; NextGen Fuel; QS Biodiesel, Ltd; Spray Processes Ltd; and the Renewable Energy Group.
Biodiesel Sales
As of January, 2008 there were about 172 U.S. companies with production capacity of 2.24BGY and another 55 companies under construction with 1.11 BGY that are expected to be completed within 18 months. In California, however, there are currently only 7 producers with stated capacity of 16.4MGY. The 6 California plants under construction/expansion have a stated capacity of 35.5MGY. The national average capacity of a US Biodiesel production facility is 7-9MGY
The information above was researched by CAVITATION TECHNOLOGIES, INC. I am not offering an opinion at all on them - they look like one start-up among many - I did like that they listed some of our competitors by name. With the price of soy biodiesel feed stock and the credit crunch they may be too optimistic in the increase in total USA capacity.
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1376793/000114420408064042/v132199_8k.htm
Problems in Corn Biodiesel
The SkunK has spent some time pointing out that the soy based biodiesel business has come to a screeching halt due to the cost of soy oil. I have blogged on the Soy based biodiesel plants that now want to jump on the corn oil based biodiesel. In fact here is what "Soy Energy, LLC" who is still not operational, has to say on p. 15/3Q about the future of Biodiesel:
"However, due to the fact that we have changed our plant design to primarily utilize corn oil, we may pursue a smaller soybean crushing facility or may abandon this plan altogether."
What?!? A plant called "Soy Energy" is moving to process corn oil?? Where do they plan on getting at least part of the oil?
"On June 24, 2008, we entered into a Crude Oil Purchase Agreement with Little Sioux Corn Processors, LLLP (“LSCP”), effective as of June 19, 2008."
Where did Little Sioux Corn Oil get the original technology?
They were one of the original demonstration plants built with Greenshift COES Technology. They have since doubled ethanol capacity and added an ICM extraction system.
Who are they going with for the biodiesel technology?
"We anticipate that the Best Energies technology would allow us to use corn oil as the primary feedstock for the biodiesel plant and expect to pursue the use of corn oil as the primary feedstock for our biodiesel production process."
They better hope that technology works - since many are finding out using Raw Corn Oil is not like anything else. You need special equipment and pretreatments to handle raw corn oil. This is why the patented and patent pending cutting edge, modular, turnkey equipment that Greenshift sells under the NextGen Fuels is such a tight fit with the CleanTech COES Technology. One magnifies the effectiveness of the other.
But SkunK you sound like a commercial for carter's pills.
OK, listen to what the Soy based biodiesel plants who have tried to convert to corn oil say in their 3Qs:
"We are currently producing some of our biodiesel from crude corn oil that we obtain from ethanol plants. Crude corn oil, however, poses several unique challenges to the biodiesel production process. The technology utilized by the ethanol plant that extracts the crude corn oil may also cause the suitability of the crude corn oil for the biodiesel production process to vary. It is possible that special technologies may be necessary to pretreat crude corn oil and other alternative vegetable oils for utilization in the biodiesel production process. Accordingly, our use of alternative vegetable oil feedstocks, such as crude corn oil, may require us to make modifications to our equipment, purchase new equipment or repair equipment that could be damaged by the use of different feedstocks." p.26 3Q WESTERN IOWA ENERGY, LLC
And here is one more to show my point:
"Furthermore, our plant does not have the technology necessary to pretreat corn oil for utilization in the biodiesel production process. To use corn oil, we would either have to add pretreatment facilities at our plant or contract with another plant to pretreat the corn oil for our use." p. 24 3Q WESTERN DUBUQUE BIODIESEL, LLC
In conclusion, we went over a few of GERS competitors in the technology and construction Biodiesel Industry. Use that as you see fit. The SkunK pointed out the problems biodiesel plants who try to jump on the corn oil bandwagon are finding out. As these small outfits begin to 'experiment' with corn oil - it reminds me of a bumper sticker I seen yesterday:
"If you think hiring a professional is expensive - try hiring an amateur."
Good Luck, SkunK
PS - Looks like I was off by a day - should see the 3Q near the close - I will guess 1537 ET. I was also way off by the board reaction to the extension - It was "Eerily Mature" - or maybe just the "Observer Effect" lol
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Observer_effect
Competitors - There are approximately 20 companies that manufacture components, systems, and/or equipment to produce biodiesel.
Modular Systems
There are a few companies that advertise themselves as offering modular Biodiesel production systems. These include Greenline Industries, Greenshift, Inc., Epic Modular Process Systems; FORE Energy; and Xenerga. We believe we can deliver the same capacity with a much better value proposition including lower capital investment, accelerated time to market, and reduced operating expenses.
Turn-key Systems
Companies offering turn-key Biodiesel production systems include Axens North America; BioKing; Extreme Biodiesel; GS Clean Tech Corporation; Jatrodiesel, Inc; JetBio; MH Equipment Co; Midland Manufacturing; Murphy International Development, LLC; NextGen Fuel; QS Biodiesel, Ltd; Spray Processes Ltd; and the Renewable Energy Group.
Biodiesel Sales
As of January, 2008 there were about 172 U.S. companies with production capacity of 2.24BGY and another 55 companies under construction with 1.11 BGY that are expected to be completed within 18 months. In California, however, there are currently only 7 producers with stated capacity of 16.4MGY. The 6 California plants under construction/expansion have a stated capacity of 35.5MGY. The national average capacity of a US Biodiesel production facility is 7-9MGY
The information above was researched by CAVITATION TECHNOLOGIES, INC. I am not offering an opinion at all on them - they look like one start-up among many - I did like that they listed some of our competitors by name. With the price of soy biodiesel feed stock and the credit crunch they may be too optimistic in the increase in total USA capacity.
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1376793/000114420408064042/v132199_8k.htm
Problems in Corn Biodiesel
The SkunK has spent some time pointing out that the soy based biodiesel business has come to a screeching halt due to the cost of soy oil. I have blogged on the Soy based biodiesel plants that now want to jump on the corn oil based biodiesel. In fact here is what "Soy Energy, LLC" who is still not operational, has to say on p. 15/3Q about the future of Biodiesel:
"However, due to the fact that we have changed our plant design to primarily utilize corn oil, we may pursue a smaller soybean crushing facility or may abandon this plan altogether."
What?!? A plant called "Soy Energy" is moving to process corn oil?? Where do they plan on getting at least part of the oil?
"On June 24, 2008, we entered into a Crude Oil Purchase Agreement with Little Sioux Corn Processors, LLLP (“LSCP”), effective as of June 19, 2008."
Where did Little Sioux Corn Oil get the original technology?
They were one of the original demonstration plants built with Greenshift COES Technology. They have since doubled ethanol capacity and added an ICM extraction system.
Who are they going with for the biodiesel technology?
"We anticipate that the Best Energies technology would allow us to use corn oil as the primary feedstock for the biodiesel plant and expect to pursue the use of corn oil as the primary feedstock for our biodiesel production process."
They better hope that technology works - since many are finding out using Raw Corn Oil is not like anything else. You need special equipment and pretreatments to handle raw corn oil. This is why the patented and patent pending cutting edge, modular, turnkey equipment that Greenshift sells under the NextGen Fuels is such a tight fit with the CleanTech COES Technology. One magnifies the effectiveness of the other.
But SkunK you sound like a commercial for carter's pills.
OK, listen to what the Soy based biodiesel plants who have tried to convert to corn oil say in their 3Qs:
"We are currently producing some of our biodiesel from crude corn oil that we obtain from ethanol plants. Crude corn oil, however, poses several unique challenges to the biodiesel production process. The technology utilized by the ethanol plant that extracts the crude corn oil may also cause the suitability of the crude corn oil for the biodiesel production process to vary. It is possible that special technologies may be necessary to pretreat crude corn oil and other alternative vegetable oils for utilization in the biodiesel production process. Accordingly, our use of alternative vegetable oil feedstocks, such as crude corn oil, may require us to make modifications to our equipment, purchase new equipment or repair equipment that could be damaged by the use of different feedstocks." p.26 3Q WESTERN IOWA ENERGY, LLC
And here is one more to show my point:
"Furthermore, our plant does not have the technology necessary to pretreat corn oil for utilization in the biodiesel production process. To use corn oil, we would either have to add pretreatment facilities at our plant or contract with another plant to pretreat the corn oil for our use." p. 24 3Q WESTERN DUBUQUE BIODIESEL, LLC
In conclusion, we went over a few of GERS competitors in the technology and construction Biodiesel Industry. Use that as you see fit. The SkunK pointed out the problems biodiesel plants who try to jump on the corn oil bandwagon are finding out. As these small outfits begin to 'experiment' with corn oil - it reminds me of a bumper sticker I seen yesterday:
"If you think hiring a professional is expensive - try hiring an amateur."
Good Luck, SkunK
PS - Looks like I was off by a day - should see the 3Q near the close - I will guess 1537 ET. I was also way off by the board reaction to the extension - It was "Eerily Mature" - or maybe just the "Observer Effect" lol
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Observer_effect
Monday, November 17, 2008
What the SkunK Learned today
As we wait for the 3Q the SkunK though he would go over a few things he learned today:
1.When someone takes an entrance ramp onto the freeway, that sign that says "Yield" is apparently just a suggestion.
2. When you pull up to an International Airport departutre area and the sign says don't leave your car - Don't leave your car! Who Knew?
3. Looking for Plant X
If you remember in the 12 September Blog we named all the plants, all the COES (Method I & II) to get us to our 38mmgy contracted corn oil that we have claimed. http://greenshift-gers.blogspot.com/2008/09/counting-coes-and-planet-x.html We found all except for a single? plant. That is we could place 36.5mmgy and we are exactly 1.5mmgy short. So with the 3Qs starting to come out we are still looking for this and other possible signs of Greenshift activity - here is a short update.
LAKE AREA CORN PROCESSORS, LLC
Ethanoldude70 spotted this one
"Our construction in process represents payments we made to purchase corn oil extraction equipment that we are installing at our plant as well as various other smaller equipment expenditures that we made during the nine months ended September 30, 2008." p.22
"Due to current conditions in the credit markets, it has been increasingly difficult for businesses to secure financing. We have experienced difficult in securing debt financing for our corn oil extraction equipment project, despite the fact that we have very little outstanding debt." p28
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156174/000110465908070887/a08-25346_110q.htm
UNITED WISCONSIN GRAIN PRODUCERS, LLC
"Our Board approved $3,671,300 for a corn oil extraction system project on July 14, 2008. This project is approximately 20% complete and is expected to be completed in April 2009."
3Q p.22 http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1169852/000116985208000006/a08-00002_110q.htm
Here are a couple more GERS candidates - no telling if they are one yet. I see none of the usual contract language. Other competitors in the sale of corn oil extraction equipment include crown iron works and icm. Thanks Ethanoldude70 for the tip.
SkunK
1.When someone takes an entrance ramp onto the freeway, that sign that says "Yield" is apparently just a suggestion.
2. When you pull up to an International Airport departutre area and the sign says don't leave your car - Don't leave your car! Who Knew?
3. Looking for Plant X
If you remember in the 12 September Blog we named all the plants, all the COES (Method I & II) to get us to our 38mmgy contracted corn oil that we have claimed. http://greenshift-gers.blogspot.com/2008/09/counting-coes-and-planet-x.html We found all except for a single? plant. That is we could place 36.5mmgy and we are exactly 1.5mmgy short. So with the 3Qs starting to come out we are still looking for this and other possible signs of Greenshift activity - here is a short update.
LAKE AREA CORN PROCESSORS, LLC
Ethanoldude70 spotted this one
"Our construction in process represents payments we made to purchase corn oil extraction equipment that we are installing at our plant as well as various other smaller equipment expenditures that we made during the nine months ended September 30, 2008." p.22
"Due to current conditions in the credit markets, it has been increasingly difficult for businesses to secure financing. We have experienced difficult in securing debt financing for our corn oil extraction equipment project, despite the fact that we have very little outstanding debt." p28
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1156174/000110465908070887/a08-25346_110q.htm
UNITED WISCONSIN GRAIN PRODUCERS, LLC
"Our Board approved $3,671,300 for a corn oil extraction system project on July 14, 2008. This project is approximately 20% complete and is expected to be completed in April 2009."
3Q p.22 http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1169852/000116985208000006/a08-00002_110q.htm
Here are a couple more GERS candidates - no telling if they are one yet. I see none of the usual contract language. Other competitors in the sale of corn oil extraction equipment include crown iron works and icm. Thanks Ethanoldude70 for the tip.
SkunK
Friday, November 14, 2008
3Q Update
As predicted in the previous Blog below, GERS has taken an extension in filing the 3Q.
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1269127/000126912708000165/gers12b25q308.txt
Since there is no news here - and I am into predicting human behavior when it comes to stocks - lets cover the basics of the board reaction to the extension.
This is where the fun begins.
Its all part of the quarterly "sharpening of the teeth" - getting ready for the actual third quarter release.
1. Normally what happens is some say filing the Q with an extension is bad. This will be pointed out as proof something terrible has happened. In truth the extension is basically automatic and a whole lot of companies take advantage of it. GERS has asked for an extension for the 1Q, 2Q and now the 3Q. They also took an extension on the last annual.
2. When that runs out of momentum, what happens next is some say there will be nothing good in the 3Q since the blocked was checked saying no "significant change in results of operations". The truth is that block is always checked. Find me one that is not.
3. Finally what happens is the filing is searched for a misspelling or a typo. This is normally near the end of discussion after they all start to run out of steam over the first two things. I don't see an obvious one this time - but sure they will find something!
Could it be different this time?? LOL, it's a riot. Watch who does it again - not hard to figure out who has a negative, down agenda - and be sure to subtract that agenda from their critique of the 3Q.
**********
If you go to the complete submission text file you can see the SkunK was only 47 minutes off with the submission of the extension request. I said (3:00 PM) 1500 ET - it was 1547 . They must have had trouble with the FAX - (electronic submission) hehe Haaaha - I'll take it.
ACCEPTANCE-DATETIME - 20081114154708 [12th Line from the top]
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1269127/000126912708000165/0001269127-08-000165.txt
SkunK
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1269127/000126912708000165/gers12b25q308.txt
Since there is no news here - and I am into predicting human behavior when it comes to stocks - lets cover the basics of the board reaction to the extension.
This is where the fun begins.
Its all part of the quarterly "sharpening of the teeth" - getting ready for the actual third quarter release.
1. Normally what happens is some say filing the Q with an extension is bad. This will be pointed out as proof something terrible has happened. In truth the extension is basically automatic and a whole lot of companies take advantage of it. GERS has asked for an extension for the 1Q, 2Q and now the 3Q. They also took an extension on the last annual.
2. When that runs out of momentum, what happens next is some say there will be nothing good in the 3Q since the blocked was checked saying no "significant change in results of operations". The truth is that block is always checked. Find me one that is not.
3. Finally what happens is the filing is searched for a misspelling or a typo. This is normally near the end of discussion after they all start to run out of steam over the first two things. I don't see an obvious one this time - but sure they will find something!
Could it be different this time?? LOL, it's a riot. Watch who does it again - not hard to figure out who has a negative, down agenda - and be sure to subtract that agenda from their critique of the 3Q.
**********
If you go to the complete submission text file you can see the SkunK was only 47 minutes off with the submission of the extension request. I said (3:00 PM) 1500 ET - it was 1547 . They must have had trouble with the FAX - (electronic submission) hehe Haaaha - I'll take it.
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1269127/000126912708000165/0001269127-08-000165.txt
SkunK
Thursday, November 13, 2008
GERS 3Q Timeframes
For the 3Q, the deadline for filing the 10Q form is Friday, November 14, 2008. The request for an extension must be filed no later than Monday. The 10Q (after extension) must be filed no later than November 19th.
Friday, November 14 10-Q
Monday, November 17 NT 10-Q
Wednesday, November 19 Late 10-Q
The SkunK expects an extention request 3pm ET on Friday. He expects the 3Q to be filed after market hours on Tuesday the 16th. The SkunK is normally surprised.
SkunK
Friday, November 14 10-Q
Monday, November 17 NT 10-Q
Wednesday, November 19 Late 10-Q
The SkunK expects an extention request 3pm ET on Friday. He expects the 3Q to be filed after market hours on Tuesday the 16th. The SkunK is normally surprised.
SkunK
SkunK SHORT ALERT!!!!
The 31 Oct short report (USA) has come out showing a massive % increase in short interest on GERS. I should be smart enough to know that no one shorts a penny stock. I would - except when I see the daily short interest is more than half the daily volume. It is obvious somebody IS shorting this stock! I see almost a 900% increase in short interest that closely follows the recent climb. On a temporary basis this can have a downward push on the stock since more shares are available to sell (inflationary). However, if the price does not come down, those shorts will be forced (eventually) (if they borrowed from an honest broker) to buy the stock at market price and sell it for their contracted price. This can cause a rapid increase in price as the shorts are forced to cover. We should see the mid-month short report next week.
Oct 31, 2008 167,463 short interest 894.55% increase 303,972 daily average 1.00
Oct 31, 2008 167,463 short interest 894.55% increase 303,972 daily average 1.00
Go to this link and hit the "short interest" tab:
http://www.pinksheets.com/pink/quote/quote.jsp?symbol=GERS
***********
For an amazing story how this just happened with VW in Germany, and how the price of the stock shot up many times - read these articles:
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Business/Wheels-Come-Off-Short-Sellers-As-They-Are-Forced-To-Buy-Soaring-Volkswagen-Shares/Article/200810415131864?f=rss
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/3281537/Porsche-and-VW-share-row-how-Germany-got-revenge-on-the-hedge-fund-locusts.html
SkunK
PS - If you think the SkunK just said GERS is gonna make Volkswagens - then you missed my point. You fail the quiz and need to re-read the blog. The possibility of increased volatility in shorted stocks - either up or down - is a fact. GERS is at the present time is a significantly shorted stock. Volkswagon is an example of a major company that moved 400% up by shorts having to cover. As far as shorts driving down a price - that is the reason financial markets all over the world have suspended short selling of financial stocks. No, I did not just say GERS is a financial stock . . . .
http://www.pinksheets.com/pink/quote/quote.jsp?symbol=GERS
***********
For an amazing story how this just happened with VW in Germany, and how the price of the stock shot up many times - read these articles:
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Business/Wheels-Come-Off-Short-Sellers-As-They-Are-Forced-To-Buy-Soaring-Volkswagen-Shares/Article/200810415131864?f=rss
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/3281537/Porsche-and-VW-share-row-how-Germany-got-revenge-on-the-hedge-fund-locusts.html
SkunK
PS - If you think the SkunK just said GERS is gonna make Volkswagens - then you missed my point. You fail the quiz and need to re-read the blog. The possibility of increased volatility in shorted stocks - either up or down - is a fact. GERS is at the present time is a significantly shorted stock. Volkswagon is an example of a major company that moved 400% up by shorts having to cover. As far as shorts driving down a price - that is the reason financial markets all over the world have suspended short selling of financial stocks. No, I did not just say GERS is a financial stock . . . .
psst Options, QQQs, call, March. Close enough to the bottom for me. What a ride. Not recommended for delicate egos - you lose more times than you win. Gotta ride those winners!
Pull out that GERS worry list
The SkunK has a GERS worry list. It has two things on it. Decent financing and COES production. Mrs SkunK thinks having two things on my mind is an improvement, she has spent years telling me I only have one. But I digress. If your GERS worry list is more complicated than mine, pull it out. Thanks to Lightbean on i-hub finding this nugget, you may get to put a line through something.
For background, on 2Q, page 22 we find this:
"The Company’s subsidiaries, GS AgriFuels Corporation and NextGen Fuel, Inc. are party to the matter entitled O’Brien & Gere Limited, et al v. NextGen Chemical Processors, Inc., et al., which action was filed in the Supreme Court of the State of New York. The verified complaint had sought performance of and damages relating to certain service and related agreements, plus attorney’s fees and costs. This matter relates to the provision by plaintiffs of certain engineering services to NextGen Chemical Processors, Inc. ("NCP") during 2005 and 2006. NCP is owned by the former shareholders of NextGen Fuel, Inc., subsidiary. On September 19, 2007, the Supreme Court of the State of New York dismissed a significant portion of O’Brien & Gere’s complaint with prejudice. Management does not believe that there is a reasonable possibility that the claims made against NextGen Fuel by the plaintiffs in this litigation indicate that a material loss has occurred. Accordingly, no accrual has been made in connection with those claims. "
The SkunK put the above paragraph through his mumbo-jumbo legal translator and came up with this:
O'Brien and Gere provided engineer work to NextGen Chemical Processors. They think they were not paid the full amount due. We bought NextGen and changed the name to NextGen Fuels and inherited the dispute. A year ago September a bunch of the complaint was thrown out because it was bogus. We have not been putting money aside to pay this, since we think we think we will win.
This is the update Lightbeam found:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=33534816
What the SkunK thinks this 3 October ruling is about is that the appeals court is
". . .dismissing the complaint in its entirety. . . " This was based on O'Brien and Gere's failure to take the dispute first to the "alternative dispute resolution (ADR) procedure" [mediator] before they took it to court. So I suppose that now they could possibly start the procedure over, take it to the ADR and then back through the court system. This is because the Appellate Courts did not rule on the merit of the case, only the huge procedural flaw. But I suspect, unless they have a brother-in-law for a lawyer (sounds too iffy for an unrelated lawyer to take on commisssion), they might just cut their losses and drop the case. This will be an interesting update in the 3Q.
SkunK
For background, on 2Q, page 22 we find this:
"The Company’s subsidiaries, GS AgriFuels Corporation and NextGen Fuel, Inc. are party to the matter entitled O’Brien & Gere Limited, et al v. NextGen Chemical Processors, Inc., et al., which action was filed in the Supreme Court of the State of New York. The verified complaint had sought performance of and damages relating to certain service and related agreements, plus attorney’s fees and costs. This matter relates to the provision by plaintiffs of certain engineering services to NextGen Chemical Processors, Inc. ("NCP") during 2005 and 2006. NCP is owned by the former shareholders of NextGen Fuel, Inc., subsidiary. On September 19, 2007, the Supreme Court of the State of New York dismissed a significant portion of O’Brien & Gere’s complaint with prejudice. Management does not believe that there is a reasonable possibility that the claims made against NextGen Fuel by the plaintiffs in this litigation indicate that a material loss has occurred. Accordingly, no accrual has been made in connection with those claims. "
The SkunK put the above paragraph through his mumbo-jumbo legal translator and came up with this:
O'Brien and Gere provided engineer work to NextGen Chemical Processors. They think they were not paid the full amount due. We bought NextGen and changed the name to NextGen Fuels and inherited the dispute. A year ago September a bunch of the complaint was thrown out because it was bogus. We have not been putting money aside to pay this, since we think we think we will win.
This is the update Lightbeam found:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=33534816
What the SkunK thinks this 3 October ruling is about is that the appeals court is
". . .dismissing the complaint in its entirety. . . " This was based on O'Brien and Gere's failure to take the dispute first to the "alternative dispute resolution (ADR) procedure" [mediator] before they took it to court. So I suppose that now they could possibly start the procedure over, take it to the ADR and then back through the court system. This is because the Appellate Courts did not rule on the merit of the case, only the huge procedural flaw. But I suspect, unless they have a brother-in-law for a lawyer (sounds too iffy for an unrelated lawyer to take on commisssion), they might just cut their losses and drop the case. This will be an interesting update in the 3Q.
SkunK
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Technically Speaking
Just a few things:1. On the feathered arrow, note the bottom Bollinger band (which has been off the bottom of the chart for a month), notice how it just peaked its head out yesterday and it is going north fast today. This significant contraction in the Bollinger bands is a sign of volatility and the SkunK believes it has been a reliable predictor of such - in this stock - in the past. I suspect this in itself means we will see some significant movement either up or down in the next five trading days.
Look here for a bot's opinion. "The current width of the bands does not suggest anything about the future direction or movement of prices." I suspect this computer generated opinion will catch up to the SkunK in a day or two. John Henry did win the race, didn't he??
http://www.allotcbb.com/quote.php?symbol=GERS.OB
2. On the standard arrow one can see the 20 day moving average (.0374) has slammed through the 50 day moving average(.034). This is a bullish sign and must be the source of this bot statement:
"Price and moving averages has closed above its Short term moving average. Short term moving average is above its mid-term; and below long term moving averages. From the relationship between price and moving averages; we can see that: this stock is BULLISH in short-term; and NEUTRAL in mid-long term."
Note that the all important 200 day ma (.087) and the 50 day ma (.034) are still moving towards each other and the "spread" has dropped from 6.0 last week to 5.3 today. I think this period of straight line trading (last nine days closes between .047 and .050) is about to come to an end. That means it will go up or down. I do not have enough to tell you which direction. The 3Q may well determine that - or it may move before the release.
Technically Speaking,
SkunK
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Red Trail Report - SIX COES by EOY??
SKUNK NEWSFLASH
Richardton, ND
Third Quarter Report - Newsletter
This update from the Red Trail Plant Manager; page one of the scheduled 8th COES 3Q Newsletter:
"In addition to regular plant operations, current projects include the installation of equipment and components for corn oil extraction. We plan to have this project completed by the end of 2008. We look forward to the additional revenue stream, as we will be selling corn oil for the production of biodiesel.
This update from the General Manager's comments on page two:
"Plan's for RTE's corn oil extraction project are well underway (scheduled completion in December 2008) and will add diversity to the plant's revenue stream."
Newsletter
http://redtrailenergyllc.com/images/uploads/Red_Trail_Report_-_Q3-2008_1.pdf
According to the 2Q, page 28 Richardton is scheduled for completion, 4Q 2008. After rereading the 11 October blog, the Skunk sees that Richardton ND was not mentioned. The SkunK wrongly figured it was mentioned here:
"1. COES#6 and COES#7 are delayed and are now scheduled for commissioning in Q1 2009. "
11 OCT Blog
http://greenshift-gers.blogspot.com/2008/10/message-from-greenshift-ceo.html
COES #6 & #7 mentioned here may instead refer to the delay of the two COES scheduled for Lakota. If this is true then we may be set for six COES by EOY rather than the five the SkunK had figured. That would be only one short of the seven the company sees as the turning point as to when they turn profitable.
SkunK
Richardton, ND
Third Quarter Report - Newsletter
This update from the Red Trail Plant Manager; page one of the scheduled 8th COES 3Q Newsletter:
"In addition to regular plant operations, current projects include the installation of equipment and components for corn oil extraction. We plan to have this project completed by the end of 2008. We look forward to the additional revenue stream, as we will be selling corn oil for the production of biodiesel.
This update from the General Manager's comments on page two:
"Plan's for RTE's corn oil extraction project are well underway (scheduled completion in December 2008) and will add diversity to the plant's revenue stream."
Newsletter
http://redtrailenergyllc.com/images/uploads/Red_Trail_Report_-_Q3-2008_1.pdf
According to the 2Q, page 28 Richardton is scheduled for completion, 4Q 2008. After rereading the 11 October blog, the Skunk sees that Richardton ND was not mentioned. The SkunK wrongly figured it was mentioned here:
"1. COES#6 and COES#7 are delayed and are now scheduled for commissioning in Q1 2009. "
11 OCT Blog
http://greenshift-gers.blogspot.com/2008/10/message-from-greenshift-ceo.html
COES #6 & #7 mentioned here may instead refer to the delay of the two COES scheduled for Lakota. If this is true then we may be set for six COES by EOY rather than the five the SkunK had figured. That would be only one short of the seven the company sees as the turning point as to when they turn profitable.
SkunK
Sunday, November 9, 2008
3Q Projections
The SkunK will take the most current guidance available, apply a little Kentucky windage and give it his best shot once again. The SkunK has two types of predictions: "Spot on" - the ones I recall, and "Left Field" - the ones I forget. So in this way I am blessed with a fine memory of my excellent prognostications. At least that's the way I remember it.
Equipment & Technology Sales
The SkunK sees this segment slightly down.
The guidance is from the 2Q: "Revenues are expected to remain at historical levels for the foreseeable future. . ." 2qp29
If we look at historical numbers for the trailing 6 quarters for the Montana seed crushing plant we see this:
1Q 07 = $1,903,517 [proforma]
2Q 07 = $1,882,946
3Q 07 = $1,925,248
4Q 07 = $861,119
1Q 08 = $3,659,954
2Q 08 = $2,523,489
1. The average of the previous 4 quarters is $2,242,453
2. The average of the previous 6 quarters is $2,126,046
The increase of the 2Q 08 over the 2Q 07 is 34%
3. Increase of 3Q o7 by 34% is $2,579,832
4. Increase of 3Q 07 by 34% is $2579,832
5. Increase of 3Q 07 by 34% is $2579,832
The SkunK has to work with what he has. By taking the five sums the way we did we were able to give additional weight to the more recent quarters, especially the seasonal reflected 3Q 07 - without losing the significant historical data or the inflationary increase in commodity prices. You are certainly allowed to laugh at the Ol'SkunK's unorthodox methodology here - but only after the 3Q shows they were ineffective. Taking the average of 1,2,3,4,5 above we get a projection of $2,421,599 for the 3Q.
Equipment & Technology Sales
The SkunK sees this segment down. Here is the guidance from the 2Q.
Revenues from our equipment sales activities increased during the second quarter 2008 but are expected to decrease during the third quarter 2008 and will thereafter remain episodic and dependent on our clients’ ability to obtain financing. While we are party to a number of agreements to design, build and commission biofuels production equipment and facilities for several domestic third party clients, the volatility in the commodity markets has made financing very difficult to obtain for clients that lack a robust feedstock and risk management strategy.
We have also received additional guidance from an Email:
"The ‘purchase option’ version of our business model allows an ethanol client to purchase the COES equipment and pay us to build the COES facility at their plant while we retain the long term right to buy the extracted oil at a higher percentage of diesel spot. This is a sale of equipment and construction services only and it does not include any sale of technology. We only have one of these contracts today. "
What the SkunK believes this tells us is that one of the COES (Riga?) was built for cash and they sell us the corn oil for a higher price that what GERS would have paid if GERS had financed the deal. I suspect that these COES cost about 1.3M to build and bring in just over 2M in revenues. Our 2Q numbers were $5,187,749. Unless we have an ear of corn up our sleeve, ["At June 30, 2008, accounts receivable, net of allowance for doubtful accounts, totaled $1,722,926. . . "] I think we should see something even under our sales of $2,564,428 in the 1Q. Guessing cash exchanged hands on the COES deal in the 3Q and maybe some various billed work at the start of the quarter before the height of the credit crunch, I am just gonna silly wag us here at 2.3M. Historically this is the hardest area to pin down, so I admit we will have a significant probable error on both the up and down side.
Culinary Oils Production and SalesThe SkunK sees this segment slightly down.
The guidance is from the 2Q: "Revenues are expected to remain at historical levels for the foreseeable future. . ." 2qp29
If we look at historical numbers for the trailing 6 quarters for the Montana seed crushing plant we see this:
1Q 07 = $1,903,517 [proforma]
2Q 07 = $1,882,946
3Q 07 = $1,925,248
4Q 07 = $861,119
1Q 08 = $3,659,954
2Q 08 = $2,523,489
1. The average of the previous 4 quarters is $2,242,453
2. The average of the previous 6 quarters is $2,126,046
The increase of the 2Q 08 over the 2Q 07 is 34%
3. Increase of 3Q o7 by 34% is $2,579,832
4. Increase of 3Q 07 by 34% is $2579,832
5. Increase of 3Q 07 by 34% is $2579,832
The SkunK has to work with what he has. By taking the five sums the way we did we were able to give additional weight to the more recent quarters, especially the seasonal reflected 3Q 07 - without losing the significant historical data or the inflationary increase in commodity prices. You are certainly allowed to laugh at the Ol'SkunK's unorthodox methodology here - but only after the 3Q shows they were ineffective. Taking the average of 1,2,3,4,5 above we get a projection of $2,421,599 for the 3Q.
Biofuel Production and Sales
Expect the overall revenues here to be down, but the Corn Oil Production and Production as a percentage of Capacity to be significantly up. Last quarter we saw $3,804,553 in revenues from this sector, a huge increase from the previous quarter of only $331,371. About 53% of these revenues were from the lower margin greases used to utilize the untapped 10mmgy capacity of the biodiesl plant at NextDiesel. According to our guidance below this capacity was not used due to the increased feedstock costs of greases. The most important thing we need to look for here is increasing corn oil production vs capacity over the quarter. The second thing is we should start to see is increasing margins in the biofuels production and sales. Does the system of clustering COES around a biodiesel plant work? Or will the cost of transporting first the oil and then the biodiesel use too much of the generated income? Can those margins make it from the chalk board to the bottom line? The SkunK thinks so, but it is by no means a done deal, a forgone conclusion or a fait accompli.
Here is the guidance from the 2Q
"While we have since stopped purchasing choice white grease and are exclusively refining corn oil into biodiesel today at reduced volumes with higher margins, we plan to take advantage of opportunities in the conventional feedstock markets as they materialize. . ."
Later, a communication implies the opportunity for higher margins in waste greases did not materialize in the 3Q:
". . . intentionally operating at a fraction of capacity since July due to the prohibitively high cost of conventional feedstocks)."
So what we are left with is the all important extracted Corn Oil to generate revenues. At the end of the 2nd quarter we had two COES producing at 77% and 33% level for a 55% average. During the 3Q we had two more COES come on line doubling our capacity, with the third COE producing oil at the start of August?
The SkunK deciphers 1 August from the 1 July interview:
"We expect Marion's commissioning to wrap up in July 2008."
That date is reinforced with the 2Q dated 19 August with Marion is listed as "Operational".
The Skunk will attribute one week of production in the 3Q for the 4th COES. COES #4 is addressed in the COES update:
"COES#4 is currently being commissioned and is expected to produce oil later this month." (October).
So to figure our capacity for the 3Q the SkunK sees 2 COES at three months, 1 COES at 2 months and 1 COES at a quarter month, for a total of 8.25 months x 1.5mmgy/12months = 1,031,250 gallons capacity for the quarter. Now on to production.
Production:
This from the 1 July Interview:
"These systems will operate at or in excess of Nameplate after installation of each Upgrade. The Utica Upgrade is nearly complete and is expected to be brought online in July 2008. The Western NY Upgrade is slated for commissioning in August 2008, the Central Indiana Upgrade will be commissioned in September 2008, and the Global Ethanol – Riga Upgrade will be commissioned with the Riga core MI COES in September 2008."
Now if we figure that the 2 COES continued into the 3Q at the same rate of production as at the end of the 2Q ["Our Oshkosh, Wisconsin and Medina, New York MI COES are currently operating at about 77% and 33% of Nameplate" - (1 July)] and if we figure that the first two COES were updated as scheduled and operated as advertised - at 100% after completion - then we get this:
1. Oshkosh= 1 month at 77% and 2 months at 100% of capacity = 96,250+250,000=346,250
2. Medina= 2 month at 33% and 1 month at 100% of capacity = 82,500+125,000=207,500
The SkunK sees a typical start (30%) and a strong finish (90%) for CIE for a two month production average of 60%. This is based on start up history of other COES and this statement:
COES#3 is operating today at slightly less than our 1.5MMGY nameplate (without the upgrade)
3. Central Indiana Ethanol=2 month at 60% = 150,000
4. Riga=1/4 month at 30% = 9,375
The SkunK sees a total corn oil/biodiesel production for the 3Q at 713,125 gallons. This is 69.2% of the SkunKs estimated capacity. The SkunK put together this history of corn oil production. The percentage is the SkunKs estimate of the production as a percentage describing production over capacity - over the entire quarter.
1Q 08: 26% 152,787 gallons of corn oil
2Q 08: 40% 296,727 gallons of corn oil
3Q 08 69% 713,125 gallons of corn oil (Estimated)
During the 2Q the average price GERS was able to get for their biodiesel was $4.59. Since then we have seen a lowering of the price of oil and diesel. Union Pacific's average cost for diesel during the 3Q was $3.70 and that seems about right to the SkunK. With that we see 713,125 X $3.70 = $2,638,562 in revenues.
***************
In conclusion
3Q '08 Estimates
$ 2,300,00 in equipment and technology sales
$ 2,421,599 culinary oil production & sales;
$2,638,562 in biofuel production and sales
__________________
$7,360,161 Total Revenues
Email/Blogs/Sources
http://greenshift-gers.blogspot.com/2008/08/coes-information.html
http://greenshift-gers.blogspot.com/2008/08/2q-predictions.html
http://greenshift-gers.blogspot.com/2008/07/interview-with-kevin-kreisler-president.html
http://greenshift-gers.blogspot.com/2008/10/message-from-greenshift-ceo.html
SkunK
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
The President-Elect's Ethanol Policy
Judging by the SkunK's scientific polls on this very blog, More than half voted for a McCain win. However, since my sample was slightly less than the 120M who actually voted you have to expect a slight error in my pre-election polling. Now that President-elect Obama has won the actual election, the SkunK thought it time to explore the winner's history with ethanol and alternative energies. This is not a political blog and if you try to guess the SkunK's politics, religion or favorite sport's team I guarantee you would be wrong. In fact, I happen to agree with all of you on all three subjects! (Maybe my fence straddling here means I have a political future - NOT!) However, future USA government policies will likely have a direct effect on the value assigned by the marketplace on the Greenshift Corporation, and knowing the intentions of our President-elect is very important- so the SkunK will take a skip through this political minefield.
First of all, one must always remember that President-elect Obama represents Illinois, the second largest corn producing state, and his policies are pro-ethanol. Here are three major points concerning Ethanol (and the potential to influence GERS) in his energy policy:
1. Flexible Fuel Vehicles: Mandate all new vehicles are FFV by end of first term in office.
2. Next Generation of Sustainable Biofuels and Infrastructure: Cellulose ethanol, biobutenol and other new technologies that produce synthetic petroleum from sustainable feedstocks. Require at least 60 billion gallons of advanced biofuels by 2030. Invest federal resources, including tax incentives and government contracts into developing the most promising technologies.
3. National Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) to speed the introduction of low-carbon non-petroleum fuels. The standard requires fuels suppliers in 2010 to begin to reduce the carbon of their fuel by 5 percent within 5 years and 10 percent within 10 years. Incentivize increased private sector investment in advanced low-carbon fuels and (utilize) a sustainability provision to ensure environmental conservation.
To get the full details of the (campaign) plan that also includes non-ethanol energy related policies, go to the link below and click on the "New Energy for America Plan" PDF link.
More Details On Obama's Ethanol Policy
Here is a recent anti-ethanol article, but full of details on Obama's policy. Watch for the name "Heather Zichal", the Obama campaign's senior energy adviser to be in the news and to be an appointment in the new administration?
1. Obama will maintain Bush's goal requiring fuel producers use at least 36 billion gallons of biofuels in 2022.
2. Ethanol will receive at least as much support as from the current administration, including tax credits to spur consumption.
3. Plans to spend $150 billion over 10 years to develop renewable fuels and to create 5 million so-called green collar jobs.
4. Plans to require at least 60 billion gallons of advanced biofuels be produced by 2030.
Obama said corn-based ethanol isn't "our best strategy'' because of its impacts on food, adding the current additive will usher in commercial production of cellulosic. He very much sees it as an important bridge fuel and important source of revenue for many rural communities but something that is the beginning of hopefully a greater investment and greater commitment to advanced biofuels. Obama also supports the 54-cent-a-gallon tariff that the United States slaps on imports of ethanol made from sugar cane
Here are two articles that show Obama's early "connections" and "commitment" to the Ethanol Industry.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/23/us/politics/23ethanol.html?hpCongratulations to all sides of this contest. Senator McCain gave the best concession speech in a generation; a class act and a true American hero.
SkunK
Monday, November 3, 2008
From Mr. Kreisler to ED
Blog readers. Ed had provided the boards with many communications with Mr. Kreisler over time. His posts have always checked out and the SkunK believes this to be genuine.
By: edman7500203
Nov 2008, 08:23 AM EST
Msg. 6485 of 6493 Jump to msg. #
From Mr. Kriesler, This could mean something good. He has been quiet lately but yesterday when I inquired about his thoughts on the Verasun thing, I got this quick reply.
On Sun, Nov 2, 2008 at 3:17 PM,
Kevin Kreisler wrote:
Rationalization will in general strengthen the entire industry and decrease our risk relative to deploying assets at new client facilities. In this particular case, we have been and remain eager to earn the business of Verasun on terms that are consistent with our standard offering. A strong business case can be made that we provide a superior path to no-cost cash flows that can be used to enhance their ability to service secured and unsecured credit and facilitate a more rapid restructuring process for the benefit of all stakeholders.
**************
http://ragingbull.quote.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=GERS&read=6485
**************
This would really be a deal if we were part of the increased cash flow settlement to get them back up after bankruptcy. It would more than double our back-order and be a sea change. This would get the attention of everyone in the industry and I would expect a significantly move of pps for GERS if this were to happen.
VeraSun has 17 facilities. The SkunK can see they are planning to do an in house extraction at VeraSun Aurora, but they are only designed to handle less than 8% of their total Corporate DDGs for extraction anyway. Also, that facility is not done yet. (The process is expected to yield 8 million gallons of corn oil annually from 390,000 tons of distillers grains.)
**************
From the Verasun web site:
VeraSun Energy Corp. (NYSE: VSE), headquartered in Sioux Falls, S.D., is a leading producer and marketer of ethanol and distillers grains. Founded in 2001, the company has a fleet of 16 production facilities in eight states, of which one is still under construction. VeraSun Energy is scheduled to have an annual production capacity of approximately 1.64 billion gallons of ethanol and more than 5 million tons of distillers grains by the end of 2008.
http://www.distillersgrainquarterly.com/article.jsp?article_id=1210&article_title=Three+VeraSun+plants+to+implement+corn+oil+extraction+units
SkunK
By: edman7500203
Nov 2008, 08:23 AM EST
Msg. 6485 of 6493 Jump to msg. #
From Mr. Kriesler, This could mean something good. He has been quiet lately but yesterday when I inquired about his thoughts on the Verasun thing, I got this quick reply.
On Sun, Nov 2, 2008 at 3:17 PM,
Kevin Kreisler wrote:
Rationalization will in general strengthen the entire industry and decrease our risk relative to deploying assets at new client facilities. In this particular case, we have been and remain eager to earn the business of Verasun on terms that are consistent with our standard offering. A strong business case can be made that we provide a superior path to no-cost cash flows that can be used to enhance their ability to service secured and unsecured credit and facilitate a more rapid restructuring process for the benefit of all stakeholders.
**************
http://ragingbull.quote.com/mboard/boards.cgi?board=GERS&read=6485
**************
This would really be a deal if we were part of the increased cash flow settlement to get them back up after bankruptcy. It would more than double our back-order and be a sea change. This would get the attention of everyone in the industry and I would expect a significantly move of pps for GERS if this were to happen.
VeraSun has 17 facilities. The SkunK can see they are planning to do an in house extraction at VeraSun Aurora, but they are only designed to handle less than 8% of their total Corporate DDGs for extraction anyway. Also, that facility is not done yet. (The process is expected to yield 8 million gallons of corn oil annually from 390,000 tons of distillers grains.)
**************
From the Verasun web site:
VeraSun Energy Corp. (NYSE: VSE), headquartered in Sioux Falls, S.D., is a leading producer and marketer of ethanol and distillers grains. Founded in 2001, the company has a fleet of 16 production facilities in eight states, of which one is still under construction. VeraSun Energy is scheduled to have an annual production capacity of approximately 1.64 billion gallons of ethanol and more than 5 million tons of distillers grains by the end of 2008.
http://www.distillersgrainquarterly.com/article.jsp?article_id=1210&article_title=Three+VeraSun+plants+to+implement+corn+oil+extraction+units
SkunK
Saturday, November 1, 2008
VeraSun seeks Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection
Our Major Competitor^ in the extraction of Corn oil from DDGs has sought bankruptcy protection. This could be good news for GERS. Depending on how this plays out, it may put more ethanol plants back in the market to sign up for our COES. With huge related assets up for play, unforeseen good things could happen. It would not surprise the SkunK that so called "experts" who were brought in to hedge risk by trading in corn and ethanol futures forgot to look out the window. Corn prices always decline at harvest - just ask any farmer. Bubbles always burst (oil included), just ask any bug. 
If you read the first layer of stories you would think that high corn prices did them in. Thanks to the WSJ below, you find out what did them in was betting that corn prices would stay high. Having won a few bets they began to think that the corn and ethanol markets move in only one direction.* Instead of reducing risk, it looks like they may have lost the farm. This is an often repeated story. In another sad side note, financiers decided to give Vera Sun a 125M line of credit this summer@. Imagine if they had invested that same money in GERS, we would now be rapidly applying a solution to ethanol industry problems - Corn Oil Extraction Systems. But the "experts" saw Vera Sun as the safe bet . . . Mean while back in reality - GERS is still providing the solution - abet slower than they could with adequate financing.
@http://www.verasun.com/Press/details.cfm?ID=143
If you read the first layer of stories you would think that high corn prices did them in. Thanks to the WSJ below, you find out what did them in was betting that corn prices would stay high. Having won a few bets they began to think that the corn and ethanol markets move in only one direction.* Instead of reducing risk, it looks like they may have lost the farm. This is an often repeated story. In another sad side note, financiers decided to give Vera Sun a 125M line of credit this summer@. Imagine if they had invested that same money in GERS, we would now be rapidly applying a solution to ethanol industry problems - Corn Oil Extraction Systems. But the "experts" saw Vera Sun as the safe bet . . . Mean while back in reality - GERS is still providing the solution - abet slower than they could with adequate financing.@http://www.verasun.com/Press/details.cfm?ID=143
*WSJ online:
"In an effort to protect itself from rising corn prices, VeraSun locked in agreements to purchase corn at $6.75 to $7.00 a bushel, while the price on corn futures sank to $4 a bushel. In September, VeraSun said it had lost $63 million to $103 million due to bets on the price of corn that ended up working against it. VeraSun's current liabilities totaled $312 million at the end of the second quarter, and it had $1.4 billion in long-term debt."
^From the Verasun web site:
^"In December 2007, work began on an oil extraction facility at VeraSun Aurora utilizing a technology to extract corn oil from distillers grains, a co-product of the ethanol production process. The process is expected to yield 8 million gallons of corn oil annually from 390,000 tons of distillers grains. The corn oil will be made available for sale to the biodiesel market. One gallon of corn oil yields approximately one gallon of biodiesel, increasing the production of renewable fuels without creating additional feedstock demand.
SkunK
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
